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衍生工具部 (Derivatives)
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重要經濟資料與事件概覽

Thursday, May 31, 2018 Views7942

中國

國家統計局週四稱,5月官方製造業採購經理人指數(PMI)錄得51.9%,較上月明顯上升0.5個百分點,顯示當前經濟繼續平穩向好。

分析師表示,4月工業增加值、出口反彈,在一定程度上修復了此前市場對經濟增長的悲觀預期。5月製造業PMI超預期,將進一步修復市場預期。資料發佈前,分析師普遍預期5月官方PMI將落在51.4%-51.6%區間。

3月以來六大發電集團日均耗煤量持續回升,5月日均發電耗煤達到70.8萬噸,折射出工業生產有所加快。此外,興業銀行首席經濟學家魯政委指出,5月工作日天數較4月多出2天,因此PMI值較上月提升實屬合理。

製造業PMI是一個綜合指數,按照國際上通用的做法,由五個主要擴散指數加權而成。通常指數在50以上,反映經濟總體擴張;低於50,反映經濟衰退。

展望未來,分析師表示,雖然近期政治局會議提出“擴大內需”,但房地產與地方政府債務的管控難言放鬆,中長期內需求端與宏觀經濟仍可能溫和下滑。

國際貨幣基金組織(IMF)週三預計,2018年中國經濟增速將較上年降低0.3個百分點至6.6%。經合組織(OECD)則預計中國2018年經濟增速為6.7%。

交通銀行高級研究員劉學智認為,目前內需難以明顯走強,投資需求有走弱風險。預計未來幾個月製造業PMI有望保持在擴張區間,但不會持續上升,可能會有所波動。

統計局同日公佈的5月中國非製造業商務活動指數錄得54.9%,比上月微升0.1個百分點。

5月份,綜合PMI產出指數為54.6%,高於上月0.5個百分點,表明企業生產經營活動總體擴張步伐有所加快。

Risk disclosure statement and disclaimers of Trading Futures and Options
The risk of loss in trading futures contracts or options is substantial.  In some circumstances, you may sustain losses in excess of your initial margin funds.  Placing contingent orders, such as “stop-loss” or: stop-limit” orders, will not necessarily avoid loss.  Market conditions may make it impossible to execute such orders.  There is a possibility that any stop-loss order may be cancelled by a futures exchange due to various reasons including where orders are ‘out of price limits’ during a fluctuating market.  You should closely monitor your orders, as we may be unable to contact you in the event of cancellation.  You may be called upon at short notice to deposit additional margin funds.  If the required funds are not provided within the prescribed time, your position may be liquidated.  You will remain liable for any resulting deficit in your account.  You should therefore study and understand futures contracts and options before you trade and carefully consider whether such trading is suitable in the light of your own financial position and investment objectives.  If you trade options you should inform yourself of exercise and expiration procedures and your rights and obligations upon exercise or expiry. You should study carefully the Disclosure Statements of Local Futures on our website

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