Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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上證突破3400指日可待

Monday, September 25, 2017 Views2695

恆指在上周二再創出28248的年內新高,但之後反覆走軟,並且失守28000,周五最低見到27846,收報27881,但對比前周仍上升了73點,升幅約0.3%.國指上周五收報11109,按周上升約0.4%.美國聯儲局議息後,維持利率不變,但同時宣布於下月開始縮減資產負債表規模,並表示12月仍有加息機會,明年將加息三次.加上標準普爾宣布調低中國主權信用評級和香港長期信用評級,對港股帶來一定負面影響.

 

上周美國沒有太多重要經濟數據公布,市場焦點都聚焦於聯儲局的議息會議之上,而聯儲局的決定對美股沒有帶來太大影響,道指上周五收報22349,按周上升0.4%;標普500指數和納指周升幅分別為0.1%和0.3%.代表中小盤股的羅素2000指數更創出1450的收市新高,周升幅達1.3%.本周將有頗多經濟數據公布,包括S&P/Case-Shiller房屋價格指數、新屋銷售、消費信心指數、耐用品訂單、成屋待完成銷售、第二季GDP修訂值、個人收入與開支、芝加哥採購經理指數、密歇根大學消費情緒指數等.

 

A股方面,上證綜指上周最高見到3377,仍未能突破3400的重大阻力位.值得注意的是,兩融餘額自今年7月以來快速回升,已逼近萬億大關,創19個月新高.兩融餘額破萬億相信只是時間問題,而上證突破3400亦應指日可待.不過,臨近國慶節及中秋節長期假,A股行情可能暫轉淡靜.內地股市從10月1日到10月8日休市,要到10月9日滬港深三地才恢恢交易.港股市自9月28日起開始關閉,直至10月9日才恢復開通;滬股通和深股市將於10月1日起關閉,直至10月日才恢復開通.

 

說回港股,恆指上周補回9月18日的上升裂口(該上升裂口闊23點,介於27894和27917之間),其實對後市走勢更為有利,但由於收市略為跌穿20天線,而9天相對強弱指數亦跌近50中軸,相信本周將考驗能否守住20天線之上.若20天線確認失守,恆指將再下試27500的支持.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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