Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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守穩10天線仍有望再上試250天線

Monday, February 18, 2019 Views4287
恆指上周曾重越250天線,上周三最高見到28533,是去年8月28日以來的最高位,可惜周五大幅回落超過500點,失守28000,收報27901,相對前周下跌了45點,跌幅0.2%,結束了連續六周的升勢.國指上周三亦一度升越250天線,最高見到11224,是自去年6月25日以來的最高位.可惜未能企穩11000以上,周五收報10937,相對前周下跌了20點,跌幅0.2%,是連續第二周下跌.
 
A股在春節假期後連升三日,雖然周四和周五兩日回落,但相比春節前最後一個交易日仍顯著上揚,上證綜指升幅達到2.4%,而滬深300和深證成指則分別上升了2.8%和5.7%.中國1月份外貿及信貸數據俱優於市場預期,為A股帶來利好刺激.據海關總署公布,1月份貨物貿易進出口同比增長8.7%,出口和進口分別增長13.9%和2.9%,貿易順差擴大1.2倍.另一方面,1月份人民幣貸款增加32300億元,高於預期的30000億元,同比多增3284億元,創單月歷史新高.社會融資規模增量為46400億元,遠超市場預期的33070億元,比上年同期多15600億元,亦創歷史新高.不過,1月份全國居民消費價格(CPI)和生產者出產價格(PPI)升幅都略差於預期,所以為股市帶來沽壓.1月份CPI同比上漲1.7%,低於市場預期的1.9%,漲幅比去年12月份回落0.2個百分點,創2018年1月以來最低漲幅.1月份PPI同比僅上漲0.1%,預期值為0.2%,環比更下降0.6%.
 
相對港股和A股,美股表現更為強勢,道指和納指俱連升八周,周升幅分別達到3.1%和2.4%.標準普爾500指數則連升三周,周升幅為2.5%.新一輪中美經貿高級別磋商在北京結束,中美本周將在華盛頓繼續貿易談判,令市場憧憬雙方能趕在3月1日限期前達成協議,為股市帶來利好刺激.另一方面,美國總統特朗普宣布南部邊境出現國家緊急狀態,以獲取邊境圍牆建設資金,加深其與國會之間的矛盾,但對美股沒有帶來太大影響.
 
說回港股,恆指上周重越250天線,但未能企穩其上,所以進而回試10天線的支持,只要能守穩10天線,相信在整固過後,仍有望再上試250天線.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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