Louis Wong Commentary

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黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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升勢暫告一段落

Monday, March 11, 2019 Views774
港股上周表現虎頭蛇尾,周一恆指重越29000,並創出年內新高29242,周二跌回29000以下,但周三卻首次收於29000以上.之後連跌兩日,周五最低見到28201,收報28228,相對前周下跌了584點,跌幅為2%,是連續第二周下跌.國指在上周一亦再創年內新高11763,周五收報11157,周跌幅超過3%.技術上,恆指上周先後跌穿了10天和20線,9天相對強弱指數亦跌破50中軸,跌至39水平,顯示走勢明顯轉弱,從1月初開始的一波升浪可能已告一段落,目前進入調整期,恆指可能下試28000甚至是27845的支持.
 
在等待調整觸底期間,最好增加現金比重,為將來低位入市儲備子彈.同時可以將現金暫時停泊於貨幣市場基金(Money Market Fund)增加回報.輝立證券的餘款寶現金管家服務提供自動調撥機制,客戶參加了這項服務後,當其港股戶人內的閒置資金達到2000港元或以上時,便會啟動自動調撥機制,在預留500港元於戶口內作備用現金後,餘下的閒置資金將買入輝立港元貨幣市場基金.當客戶重新買入股票,餘款寶服務會台客戶調撥所需資金以進行交收,令現金沒"閒置"時間.現時,輝立貨幣市場基金的年化收益率約1.4%.
 
上周評論指出,如上證綜指能突破3000大關,將帶動恆指再上越29000並企穩其上,結果只猜中了一部分.上證綜指上周不僅突破了3000,更突破3100,在上周四最高見到3129,但周五大幅下挫達4.4%,3000大關得而復失,全周下跌0.8%.滬深300周跌幅更達到2.5%.中國2月份外貿數據差於預期,令市場對經濟前景感到憂慮.中國2月份進出口總值同比下降9.4%.其中,出口下降16.6%,進口下降0.3%,貿易順差收窄84%.今年前兩個月,中國進出口總值僅增長0.7%,其中,出口增長0.1%,進口增長1.5%,貿易順差收窄8.7%.此外,廣東證監局召開了座談會,了解近期有抬頭跡象的場外配資活動,亦令市場感到不安.
 
美股三大指數上周連跌五天,道指和標準普爾500指數按周均下跌2.2%,納指周跌幅更達到2.5%.美國2月份就業數據大幅差於預期,當月非農職位僅增加2萬份,遠少於預期的18萬份.可幸失業率由4%回降至3.8%,而平均時薪則上升11%,是2009年末以來的最大升幅.加上歐洲央行在上周四將今年經濟增長預測大幅下調至1.1%,並預計2020年和2021年歐元區經濟分別增長1.6%和1.5%,都加深了市場對經濟前景的憂慮.另一方面,中美雙方仍未定出舉行峰會的日期,令貿易談判增添變數,亦為股市帶來沽售壓力.
 
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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