Louis Wong Commentary

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黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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上升動力略嫌不足

Monday, April 01, 2019 Views1011
美國國債孳息曲線出現倒掛,引起經濟衰退憂慮,令美股在前周五顯著下跌,帶動港股上周一裂口低開,恆指當日出現了一個闊145點的下跌裂口,介於28847和28702之間.之後幾日,恆指逐步回升,上周五重越29000,最見到29101,收報29051.不過,和前周相比,上周恆指仍下跌了62點.771,收報29077,上升312點,高水26點,成交170727張.國指上周亦呈現先低後高的走勢,上周二見到11178全周最低位,周五最高升見11424,收報11380,但和前周比較仍下跌1.2%.一季度埋單計數,恆指和國指升幅都達到12.4%.
 
A股上周亦呈現先挫後揚的走勢,上證綜指在上周初曾多次下破3000大關,但周五大幅上揚,重越3000點,收報3090.一季度,上證綜指上升了23.9%,深證成指升幅更達到36.8%,遙遙領先其他市場.上周公布的經濟數據顯示,今年1-2月份全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額同比下降14%,主要受春節因素影響.如剔除春節因素,規模以上工業企業利潤總額與上年同期持平略降.雖然經濟數據表現一般,但有報道指中美第八輪經貿高級別磋商,雙方討論了協議有關文本,並取得新的進展,為A股和美股帶來支持.
 
美股道指上周五收報25928,按周上升1.5%,按季則上升了11.2%.納指上周五收報7729,按周和按季分別上升1.1%和16.5%.標準普爾500指數上周五收報2834,按周和按季分別上升1.2%和13.1%,是自2009年第三季以來的最好表現.
 
說回港股,恆指重越29000,但動力略嫌不足,9天相對強弱指數(RSI)僅為56水平.由於上升動力不足,上周一出現的下跌裂口要用了四天才全數補回.技術上,恆指亦重越10天和20天線,本周將考驗能否守住10天和20天線之上.短期上阻力29250,支持位28750.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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