Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補一月初上升裂口?

Monday, June 3, 2019 Views2963
五窮月,港股、A股和美股都顯著下跌.恆指累計下跌了2798點,跌幅達9.4%.國指累跌1155點,跌幅達1%.恆指失守27000,在上周五最低見到26850,收報26901,相對前周下跌了453點,跌幅1.7%.國指亦連跌四周,上周五收報10387,周跌幅為0.6%.
 
上證綜指按月下跌5.9%,5月以來,北上資金合計淨賣出額高達536.7億元人民幣,創出自互聯互通實施以來北上資金單月淨賣出的最高紀錄.其中,滬股通合計淨賣出339.2億元,深股通合計淨賣出197.5億元.投資者觀望中美貿易戰如何演進,加上中國宏觀經濟數據表現不理想,都為股市帶來沽售壓力.5月份中國官方製造業採購經理指數為49.5,比4月份回落0.7個百分點,再次跌回收縮區間.在構成製造業PMI的5個分類指數中,只有生產指數和供應商配送時間指數高於50臨界點,其餘3個分類指數包括新訂單指數原材料庫存指和從業人員指數都低於臨界點.
 
美股上周顯著下挫,道指連跌六周,周跌幅達3%,是自2011年6月以來最長的跌勢;納指和標準普爾500指數按周分別下跌2.4%和2.6%.整個5月份,道指下跌了6.6%,納指跌幅更達到7.9%.美國總統特朗普發推特表示,將從6月10日起對所有墨西哥輸美產品徵收5%關稅,如果非法移民問題不解決,關稅將逐步增加,到10月1日將增加至25%並一直保持在25%水平.美國發起的貿易戰波及墨西哥,加上美國國債孳怎曲線再現倒掛,令市場憂慮可能是經濟步入衰退的預示,亦對美股帶來沽壓.
 
說回港股,恆指仍延續一浪低於一浪的走勢,料向26700目標推進.如果26700失守,下一步可能回補今年1月9日的上升裂口,該上升裂口闊232點,介於25961和26193之間.面對股市持續下行,還是增持現金比較穩妥.據統計數據顯示,5月1日至5月24日,27隻在A股場內貨幣基金錄得資金淨流入規模合計約211.7億元,比4月份淨流入金額61.3億元大幅增加.香港的港元貨幣市場基金年收益率大約為1.4%,雖然比不上一些高息股3%、4%以上的收益率,但勝在不必承擔股價波動的風險,而且亦較定期存款具備更高靈活性,隨時可以贖回去做投資.
 


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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