Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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未嚴重超賣仍有下行空間

Monday, September 30, 2019 Views3483
上周指出恆指20天線恐將失守,將下試26000的支持.結果恆指再度失守26000,在上周五最低見到25841,收報25955,相對前周下跌了481點,跌幅1.8%,是連續第二周下跌,而且呈現十連陰.國指在上周五最低見到10109,收報10149,按周下跌2.2%,也是連續第二周下跌.
 
美股亦連跌兩周,道指標準普爾500指數和納指按周分別下跌0.43%1.01%和2.19%.有關中美貿易談判的消息繼續左右著股市,美國特朗普表示中美或較預期更早達成協議,曾為股市帶來利好刺激,但之後有消息指華為禁令暫緩期將不獲美國延長,以及傳言美國政府或要求中概股於美股市場除牌,都為股市帶來沽壓.另一方面,美國民主黨發起對彈劾特朗普,亦為股市帶來不明朗因素.經濟數據方面,美國8月份個收入增長0.4%,低於預期的0.5%增幅;個人開支增長0.1%,亦低於預期的0.3%增幅,反映消費者擔心經濟前景轉差,減少消費而增加儲蓄,8月份美國個人儲蓄率由7月份的7.8%上升至8.1%.另一方面,美國8月份核心資本財訂單下跌0.2%,是四個月來最弱表現,反映商業投資有所減弱.
 
A股上周亦顯著下跌,上證綜指再次失守3000,按周下跌2.5%;滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌2.1%和3.4%.經濟數據方面,8月份全國規模以上工業企業利潤由升轉跌,同比下降2%,7月份為上升2.6%,主要受工業生產銷售增速放緩工業品出廠價格降幅擴大,以及超強颱風等不利因素影響.
 
說回港股,雖然恆指呈現十連陰,但9天相對強弱指數仍未算嚴重超賣,所以仍有下行空間,料將下試9月4日(當日特首宣布撤回<<逃犯條例>>修訂案)的大陽燭底部25675的支持.如25675失守,下一支持位將為25400.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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