Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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收窄三角形走勢有待突破

Monday, October 28, 2019 Views4537
恆指上周高低波幅只有352點,最高見到26844,最低26492,周五收報26667,相對前周下跌了53點,跌幅0.2%,結束了連續兩周的升勢.國指上周高低波幅只有157點,上周五收報10466,按周下跌0.7%,亦結束了連續兩周的升勢.
 
A股上周亦呈現窄幅波動,上證綜指在2950水平徘徊,上周五收報2954,按周上升0.5%.經濟數據方面,前三季度全國規模以上業企業利潤總額同比下降2.1%.其中,第一季度下降3.3%,第二季度下降1.9%,第三季度下降1.8%,降幅呈現逐季收窄態勢.數據顯示,工業企業效益出現結構性改善,主要體現於利潤增長行業增多,以及高技術製造業和戰略性新興產業利潤增長加快.另一方面,有報道指中美敲定部分首期貿易協議內容,中美兩國首腦有望在下月的智利峰會上簽署貿易協定,亦為股市帶來支持.不過,十九屆四中全會召開前,市場觀望氣氛仍然濃厚.
 
美股方面,標準普爾500指數上周五收報3022,按周上升1.2%,為歷史上第二高收市指數,與歷史上最高收市指數3025(見於今年7月26日)只相差0.1%.道指按周上升0.7%,與歷史最高收市指數僅相差1.5%;納指周升幅更達到1.9%.經濟數據方面,美國9月份二手房屋及新屋銷售同比都呈現下跌,9月份耐用品訂單更由正轉負,下跌了1.1%,大於市場預期的0.8%跌幅.10月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數亦低於預期,由96下降至95.5.雖然經濟數據差於預期,但反而提升聯儲局本周減息機會,利好股市.
 
說回港股,恆指現時夾於100天線(27020)和10天線(26680)之間窄幅上落,形成一個收窄三角形,本周料會出現突破.如能突破100天線阻力,料可進一步上試250天線(27339).反之,若確認跌破10天線,將回試50天線(26300)的支持.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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