Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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守住25300 完成整固可重拾升勢

Monday, July 13, 2020 Views2118
上周評論指出,恆指突破了收窄三角形下降軌,以及6月10日高位25304,形成一浪高於一浪的走勢, 下一步料可嘗試補回3月9日的下跌裂口(26084-25321)及挑戰250天線.恆指在上周二最高見26783,是自今年3月5日以來的最高位,可惜未能企穩250天線之上.恆指上周五最低見到25570,收報25727,相對前周仍上升了354點,升幅1.4%,是連續第二周上升.國指在上周二最高見到10935,是自今年2月20日以來的最高位,周五收報10541,按周上升2.9%,也是連續第二周上升.
 
A股上周大幅挺升,上證綜指在上周四最高見到3456,周五收報3383,周升幅達7.3%;滬深300和深證成指周升幅分別為7.6%和9.95%.滬深兩市成交額上周連續五日突破10000億,截至7月8日,滬深兩市兩融餘額達到13013億元,創出了自2015年8月以來的近五年新高.面對A股升勢過急,社保基金和一些大基金開始減持部分公司股份,可被視為為A股降溫,未嘗不是一件好事.經濟數據方面,中國6月份CPI同比增長2.5%,符合市場預期;PPI同比下降3%,好於市場預期的下降3.2%,較5月份下降3.7%明顯改善.此外,6月份人民幣貸款增加1.81萬億,同比多增1474億元.本周將迎來其他重磅經濟數據,包括固定資產投資社會消費品零售總額和工業增加值等.
 
美股上周亦反覆上行,道指上周五收報26075,按周上升1%;納指和標準普爾500指數按周分別上升4%和1.8%.雖然美國新冠病毒疫情持續惡化,但關於治療藥物的好消息卻為股市帶來期望.據美國生物製藥公司吉利德公布,最近的分析顯示,與單純的標準護理相比,使用其生產的瑞德西韋可將新冠肺炎感染重症患的死亡風險降低62%.
 
說回港股,恆指未能企穩250天線之上,並失守26000,可視為先前急升後的正常回吐,預期可能進一步考驗10天線的支持(該線現時處於25415附近),並補回上周一的上升裂口.該上升裂口闊89點,介於25454和25543之間.技術上,只要守住25300,估計在完成整固後可重拾升勢,再上試250天線.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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