Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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補回上升裂口或呈技術性反彈

Monday, September 28, 2020 Views1833
上周評論以為恆指可以守住24200,將繼續在24200和24700之間窄幅上落,結果看錯了.恆指在上周一一舉跌穿24000,之後繼續下行不斷探底,上周五最低見到23124,是自5月29日以來的最低位,當日收報23235,相對前周下跌了220點,跌幅接近5%,是連續第四周下跌.國指最高和最低分別見到9452和9275,收報9303,下跌68點,跌幅0.7%,周跌幅達5.1%.國指在上周五最低見到9275,是自4月2日以來的最低位,當日收報9303,周跌幅達5.1%.
 
A股上周亦明顯走弱,上證綜指險守3200,上周五收報3219,按周下跌3.6%;滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌3.5%和3.3%.滬深兩市成交繼續萎縮,國慶和中秋節前資金以觀望為主.另一方面,北向資金連續五日流出,全周淨流出總額為247億元,今年以來合計流入額不跌1000億.經濟數據方面,1至8月份全國規模以上工業企業實現利潤總額31766.5億元,同比下降4.4%,降幅比1至7月份收窄3.7個百分點.其中,8月份全國規模以上工業企業利潤同比增長達19.1%,主要由於生產和需求不斷改善,推動工業企業銷售增長.
 
美股也面對沽售壓力,納指在上周四最低見到10520,是自12074歷史高位回落以來的新低,可幸周五回升超過200點,全周計數錄得1.1%升幅,但道指和標準普爾500指數按周卻分別下跌了1.8%和0.6%,並且都是連跌四周,是自2019年8月23日以來的最長跌幅.歐美疫情反彈,令市場擔心經濟將迎來第二波威脅.另一方面,美國共和黨及民主黨迄未能就刺激經濟方案達成共識,亦為市場帶來不明朗因素,促使資金流入美元避險,美元指數上周上漲1.69%,創出自4月初以來最大單周漲幅.
 
說回港股,恆指在上周五最低見到23125,補回6月1日的上升裂口的大部分.該上升裂口闊450點,介於23090和23540之間.由於恆指短期已呈現超賣(9RSI跌至20以下),在補回上述上升裂口後或會出現技術性反彈,但下行趨勢應該還未結束,後市很大機會跌穿23000,下試22520-22780的支持.
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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