Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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完成短期調整再上試31000

Monday, February 22, 2021 Views1865
港股在牛年第一個交易日裂口高開,之後繼續上揚,恆指在上周四最高見到31183,為自2018年6月12日以來最高位,周五出現回吐,最低回落至30100,收報30645,對比上周仍上升了471點,升幅1.6%,是連續第三周上升.國指上周四最高見到12271,為自2018年6月7日以來最高位,周五收報12107,按周上升1.9%,也是連續第三周上升.
 
A股上周表現分化,上證綜指一度升越3700,在上周四最高見到3731,周五收報3696,按周上升1.1%,但滬深300和深證成指按周卻分別下跌0.5%和0.9%.牛年中國經濟開門紅,多項數據均破紀錄.據商務部監測,除夕至農曆正月初六(2月11日至17日),全國重點零售和餐飲企業實現銷售額8210億元,比去年春節黃金周增長28.5%,比2019年增長4.9%.人民銀行在春節後首個工作日進行MLF待量、等價續作,並縮量進行逆回購,反映人行將逐步回籠春節前發放的短期超额流動性.同時,鎖短放長意味明顯,希望維持中長期利率穩定.
 
美股上周亦呈現分化表現,道指按周上升0.1%,而納指和標準普爾500指數卻分別下跌1.6%和0.7%.近期公布的美國經濟數據表現參差,例如1月份零售銷售上升5.3%,遠好於市場預期,但最新一周新申領失業救濟金人數卻多於預期.另一方面,受通脹升溫預期推動,美債收益率不斷,10年期國債孳息率於上周五上漲4.07個基點至1.3364%,創出自2020年2月25日以來最高點.
 
說回港股,恆指在上周四創出31183年內新高後,周五最低回見31100,低位接近10天線(30048),可視為後抽.同時亦補回了上周二的上升裂口,該上升裂口闊313點,介於30184和30497之間.恆指周五形成陽燭錘頭,相信已完成短期調整,本周可再上試31000.不過,這個升浪由1月29日起步,已運行了三個星期.如果參考上一個升浪的運行時間,這個升浪很可能在2月尾三月初見頂.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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