Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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大市觸底反彈

Monday, September 20, 2021 Views3192

上周以為港股反彈仍將持續,恆指可再挑戰50天線,結果看錯了.恆指上周大幅回落,更跌穿8月低位24582,在上周五見到24425的年內新低,當日收報24921,相對前周下跌了1285點,跌幅達4.9%,結束了連續三周的升勢.國指上周五最低見到8727,收報8940,按周下跌4.8%;科指在上周四最低見到6161,周五收報6452,按周下跌4.4%. 

 
A股上周亦有所回落,上證綜指按周下跌2.4%,滬深300和深證成指周跌幅分別為3.2%和2.8%.上周公布的多項經濟數據均創年內新低,投資方面,1-8月份全國固定資產投資同比增長8.9%,增速比1-7月份放慢1.4個百分點;消費方面,8月份社會消費品零售總額同比增長2.5%,增速比7月份下降6個百分點;工業方面,8月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長5.3%,增速比7月份放慢1.1個百分點.市場人士預計,在政策的多維度支持下,8月或為全年經濟低點,年底前經濟表現將逐月回升.
 
美股方面,上周公布的美國經濟數據表現參差,其中,8月份零售銷售環比上升0.7%,遠好於市場預期的0.8%跌幅.另一方面,9月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數初值由8月的70.3這個近十年低位回升至71,但差於市場預期的72.投資者關注下周聯儲局議息會議將宣布縮減買債規模,為美股帶來沽售壓力.道指按周下跌0.1%,並且連跌三周,是自2020年9月以來的最長跌勢.標準普爾500指數連跌兩周,周跌幅為0.6%.至於納指,則按周下跌0.5%.
 
說回港股,恆指於9月8日完成短期反彈,由當日高位26560下跌至上周五低位24425,歷時八個交易日,下跌了2135點,近似上一個跌浪由8月11日高位26822下跌至8月20日低位24582,也是歷時八個交易日,一共下跌了2240點.這次觸底反彈,若反彈跌浪的一半,大概可回升至25500.
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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