Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指50天線料將失守

Monday, June 20, 2022 Views2701

上周指出恆指未能企穩100天線以上,加上美股走弱,恆指料將再回試50天線的支持.結果恆指上周曾多次下試50天線,最低見到20697,周五收報21075,相對前周下跌了731點,跌幅3.4%.國指和科指分別下跌3.2%和3.6%.不過,A股卻不受美股影響,上證綜指按周升近1%,滬深300和深證成指周升幅分別為1.7%和2.5%.上周公布的宏觀經濟數據顯示,中國經濟呈現恢復勢頭,為股市帶來支持.其中,5月份全國規模以上工業增加值同比增長0.7%,4月份為下降2.9%;社會消費品零售總額同比下降6.7%,降幅比4月份收窄4.4個百分點;1-5月份全國固定資產投資同比增長6.2%,相比1-4月份的6.8%升幅有所收窄,主要受房地產開發投資下降4%拖低.

美股方面,聯儲局一如預期加息四分三厘,鮑威爾談話放鴿,表示下次加息可能是二分一厘或四分三厘,並預計加息四分三厘的舉措不會成為常態,只為美股帶來短暫支持.市場憂慮單靠加息未必能壓抑通脹,但不斷加息卻會提高美國最終陷入衰退的風險.事實上,最新預測顯示美國第二季度GDP零增長,經濟的確瀕臨衰退邊緣.道指和納指上周均下跌4.8%,而標準普爾500指數周跌幅更達到5.8%.同時,標普500指數已從今年1月的歷史高位下跌超過20%,確認進入熊市.道指亦已失守30000點,距離熊市僅一步之遙.

說回港股,恆指上周多次下破50天線,但跌近20700水平見到支持,周五仍收於50天線之上.不過,恆指9天相對強弱指數(RSI)再次跌穿50中軸,顯示上升動力已見轉弱,50天線最終恐會失守,下一支持位看20660.若跌穿20660,將下試20330並回補5月27日的上升裂口.該上升裂口闊222點,介於20272和20494之間.

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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