Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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開始回補4月上升裂口

Monday, August 5, 2024 Views1012

上周評論指出,恆指正考驗17000的支持。若17000確認失守,將回補4月遺留下來的上升裂口。結果恆指終於失守17000,上周五最低見到16865,收報16945,相對前周下跌了75點,跌幅0.4%,是連續第三周下跌。國指和科指亦連跌三周,周跌幅分別為0.6%和1.6%。外圍股市大幅下挫,迭加中國經濟數據差於預期,令港股承壓。7月中國官方製造業採購經理指數(PMI)為49.4,較6月下跌0.1,是連續三個月處於50以下萎縮區間。7月官方非製造業PMI從6月的50.5下降至50.2,低於預期的50.3。7月財新中國製造業PMI錄得49.8,較6月下降2個百分點,低於預期的51.4,並且是自2023年11月以來首次低於50榮枯線。不過,數據對滬深股市沒有太大影響。上證綜指按周上升0.5%,而深證成指和滬深300分別下跌0.5%和0.7%。

美股大幅下挫,道指和標準普爾500指數按周同跌2.1%,納斯達克綜合指數周跌幅更達到3.4%,並且已較7月10日的歷史高位18647下跌達一成,進入調整區間。上周公布的多個經濟數據顯示,勞動市場呈現放緩跡象,例如7月ADP就業人數僅增加12.2萬人,低於預期和前值的15萬人,是今年1月以來最低水平。7月非農職位增加11.4萬人,遠低於預期的17.5萬,而前值亦大幅下修至17.9萬;失業率由4.1%升至4.3%,高於預期的4.1%。近期開始多人談論的「蕯姆規則」升至0.53,超越了0.5的衰退臨界點,投資者的憂慮開始由通脹轉移至經濟衰退。

說回港股,恆指上周最低見到16865,補回了4月24日的上升裂口的大部分。該上升裂口闊89點,介於16846和16935之間,相信很快會完全補回,下一步將回補4月22日的上升裂口。該裂口闊156點,介於16255和16411之間。

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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