Market Brief

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Author

孫慶輝先生 (Henry Suen)
輝立証券助理聯席董事

現職輝立助理聯席董事,畢業於香港中文大學工商管理學院,於銀行業及證券業工作超過10年,實戰經驗豐富,為特許財務分析師(CFA)及註冊財富管理師(CFMP)。
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慢牛與狂牛

Tuesday, October 24, 2017 Views6009

恒生指數連升8個月後,9月份終於斷纜,唯回吐僅僅416點,其間北韓局勢、中印衝突、英國脫歐談判、聯署局收水等均未有對大市帶來較大影響,並沒有出現扭轉升市的重大因素。踏入10月,經濟數據向好支持歐美股市上升,再加上內地央行定向降準,市場憧憬貨幣政策放寬,好消息湧現下,港股一度突破2015年大時代的高位,至28800點水平。

 

不過上星期四傳出西班牙政府將收回加泰羅尼亞自治權,市場借歐洲不明朗的局勢壓低港股,恒生指數迎來較大調整,在金融股及汽車股急跌拖累下,一度急跌超過600點,收市仍要下跌552點。我之前講過,2015年恒指28588點高位阻力只屬心理關口,要突破其實一點也不困難。雖然今次突破後大幅回吐,唯個人相信慢牛格局未變,市場要用到遠至西班牙的不明朗因素來夾低恒指,反映市場負面消息其實相當少,調整後仍大大有望再次上試29000點關口。

 

難得調整,大家可以考慮吸納落後券商股,今年以來,由於大市成交未有大幅增加,廣發証券(1776)只上升約8%,遠比大市約30%低,緩慢的牛市或許仍會持續一段時間,但若到了牛市三期尾段,氣氛熾熱、成交急增,廣發証券將有望突破25元的大時代高位,可考慮現價買入,待大市變成狂牛,成交突破2000億時沽出,筆者認為有不錯的值博率。

 

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