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Author

孫慶輝先生 (Henry Suen)
輝立証券助理聯席董事

現職輝立助理聯席董事,畢業於香港中文大學工商管理學院,於銀行業及證券業工作超過10年,實戰經驗豐富,為特許財務分析師(CFA)及註冊財富管理師(CFMP)。
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比特幣式牛市

Tuesday, December 19, 2017 Views4321

回顧過去一個月市況,在新經濟股的帶領下,一度帶動恒生指數突破30,000點。不過大市主要由數隻升幅驚人的重磅大藍籌推動,故上月底當恒指調整成分股比重時,相關大藍籌急跌,令恒指調整約2000點至近28000水平。而美國減稅方案有突破性進展,亦令市場擔心資金由新興市場流回美國本土,新興市場同樣有不同程度的調整。

 

到上週,聯儲局加息0.25%,又反而令匯控等本地銀行股轉強,令恒指短線形成一個急速上落市格局,能否企穩於50天線(28856點)上成為關鍵。市場變化又快又狠,投資者跟市大貼,反而容易做錯投資決定。

 

股市能否進入超級牛市,相信2018年自有分曉。不過另一邊廂,外界認為比特幣、以太幣等虛擬貨幣已進入無敵牛市。但David Webb 上週發文表示,比特幣是一個分散式的龐氏騙局。而筆者則認為比特幣是史上最龐大的無莊家賭局,一個馬拉松式的零和遊戲,虛擬貨幣的興起源自對的美元、歐元等主要貨幣的不信任,加上走資、逃稅及匿名交易的需求禁之不絶,才令龍頭大哥比特幣的價值直線上升,即虛擬貨幣是以推倒傳統貨幣系統及金融監管作賣點,基本上是與環球主要國家為敵,泡沫爆破只是時間問題。有一天,當市場面對一堆泡沫已爆破的虛擬貨幣、一堆難以令人信任的傳統貨幣,也許低殘的貴金屬(如金、銀、白金等)價格將會迎來吐氣揚眉的一天。

 

無論你是否參與這舖賭局,你都要問自己一個問題,假如賭局有一天曲終人散,又會如何? 就如1637年荷蘭鬱金香狂熱或1997年本港樓市泡沫,泡沫爆破後均留下一班暴發戶及更多破產的散戶,請謹記,投資比特幣需要有心理預備接受損失全部資金,既然如此,不如購入黃金ETF(2840)作對沖吧!

 

 

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