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邱澤波先生 (Porter Yau)
助理經理

主要按基本因素選股,但有時也會參考圖表、技術分析。除股票外,亦經常研究期權 。歡迎來電賜教或交流心得。
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瑞安房地産會私有化嗎?

Monday, November 12, 2018 Views1467

年初有報張透露大股東羅康瑞有意向銀行融資,有可能計劃私有化瑞房,股價炒高至$2.8。事後大股東澄清暫未有私有化計劃,股價隨大市回落。

 

其實什麼情況下才會私有化?

答案好簡單,就係大股東認為現時的股價相比起實際的資產價值,有很大的折讓,倒不如私有化。

 

瑞安房地産(272)現價1.7,PB只有0.3。PE只有6.8倍,股息率6.2%。負責比率亦大大降低至43%。資產折讓率確實十分吸引,市場認為大股東有機會私有化瑞房亦不無道理。但問題係為何瑞房竟然交出一份亮麗的業績,試問如果有心私有化,需要先做好業績嗎?有心私有化公司的,當然要令小股東長期對股價失去信心,這才會令私有化成事的機會大大提高。
 

現時大股東只持有57.21%的股本。此外,瑞房還有價值2.25億美元的可換股債,換股價現時為2.76,最早可贖回日期為2020年6月4日。如果私有化價為5.35(2006年上市價),大股東需要動用431億去私有化(未計債轉股)。動用的資金是現時市值的3倍!個人仍為不划算!

 

所以,本人認為大股東想真正私有化瑞房,應該會等2020年6月後。屆時相信業績會倒退,股價不跌反升,這才會成事。在這段期間,大股東很大可能利用各種方法增加對公司持股的百分比。以股代息?購買可換股債?公司回購?大家拭目以待。

 

建議:現價收集 ( $1.7) 或等贖回通告

目標價:私有化價,$5.35

 

 

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