Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

許偉龍先生(Anthony Hui)
交易員

現任職輝立交易員,對投資股票經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
Phone:
36533066

中國國旅股份有限公司 (601888.SH)

Tuesday, November 13, 2018 Views1439

主要從事旅行社和免稅業務

 

基本資料 :

現價: ¥54.61

市值: 1,066.25億人民幣

市盈率: 42.13

周息率: 0.95%

52週高/低: ¥76.03 /¥38.30

10天/50天/250天平均價 : ¥55.28/ ¥60.06/ ¥56.35

 

主要股東 :

中國旅遊集團有限公司(55.3%)

 

業務回顧:

截至2018年6月30日止的上半年業績,中國國旅的收入增長67.77%至人民幣210.84億元。公司權益持有者的淨利潤增加47.58%至人民幣19.2億元。 收入和淨利潤的增加反映報告期內公司通過收購日上免稅行(上海)有限公司,以鞏固及優化現有離島免稅業務和開展首都機場及香港機場免稅業務。

 

評論:

第一,剛剛過去的國慶長假期間,綜合各地旅遊部門,通訊運營商,線上旅行服務商上報和提供的數據,經中國旅遊研究院(文化和旅遊部數據中心)測算,全國共接待國內遊客7.26億人次,實現國內旅遊收入5,990.8億元。國慶長假期間全國接待國內遊客數量、國內旅遊收入均收穫豐厚,即將到來的聖誕及元旦預計出遊資料將繼續維持增長。

 

第二,8月下旬,公司擬將全資子公司中國免稅品(集團)有限責任公司所持下屬83家全資或控股子公司股權劃轉至中免公司在海南設立的全資子公司-中免集團(海南)運營總部有限公司。此外,海南建省30周年,國務院明確提出“實施更加開放便利的離島免稅購物政策,實現離島旅客全覆蓋,提高免稅購物限額”,離島免稅限額有望由16,000元大幅提升,公司有望受益於離島免稅的擴容。

 

第三,9月初,公司控股子公司日上免稅行分別與上海機場(集團)有限公司和上海國際機場股份有限公司簽署了《上海虹橋國際機場免稅店專案經營權轉讓合同》和《上海浦東國際機場免稅店項目經營權轉讓合同》。合同履行期限自 2019年1 月1日始至2025年12月31日止,預期對公司未來經營業績產生催化劑。

 

基於以上三個利好的因素會為公司的收入及發展提供了極佳的條件。

 

風險提示:

第一,財務風險,人民幣對美元匯率波動加大,匯率風險是影響公司經營的重要風險之一。

第二,市場風險,行業競爭愈發激烈,國外旅遊零售巨頭覬覦中國旅遊零售市場,旅遊線上企業的價格戰和小旅行社的違規經營,令傳統正規經營的旅行社企業經營壓力加劇。

 

買賣策略
買入: ¥49.95

目標價: ¥76

止蝕價: ¥45

 

 

資料來源:

1)2018 年中期報告

2)新浪財經新聞

3)公司公告

 

 

註:本人許偉龍為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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