Market Brief

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Author

黃萬里先生 (Man Wong)
交易員

現於輝立証券任職交易員,擅長由上而下,縱觀經濟大勢,再結合技術及基礎分析,研究版塊及個股走勢。 本人認為,要於動盪的市況,持續取得優秀的成績,除了取決於投資策略及工具是否運用得宜,投資者的個人心理質素,是更為關鍵的因素。 歡迎各位來電或WhatsApp,交流港股、期貨、期權及其他衍生工具的投資心得。
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中國燃氣 (00384.HK)

Friday, November 30, 2018 Views1354
業績
中國燃氣公布截至今年9月底的中期業績,營業額288.77億元,按年升38.3%。純利42.26億元,按年升24.5%;每股盈利84.42仙,派中期息8仙,按年持平。
期內,集團共銷售109.8億立方米天然氣,較去年同期增長33.1%,其中,通過城市與鄉鎮管網,共銷售59.6億立方米天然氣,較去年同期增長28.1%,而通過貿易與長輸管道業務,共銷售50.2億立方米天然氣,較去年同期增長39.6%。
 
業務展望
中國燃氣接駁居民用戶數目自2010年以來,一直保持增長趨勢,由2010年的589萬戶,增長至2018年9月30日的2711萬戶,按年增長率保持在大約20%。
城市燃氣項目的居民用戶滲透率也持續上升,去年上升4%至59.8%,距離80%的成熟市場目標,尚有不少上行空間。
另外,隨著鄉鎮煤改氣的落實,新增接駁居民用戶達到112萬戶,同比大增59.1%。公司現已與15個省份簽署了合作協議,有序地推動環保能源的應用。
 
評論
中國燃氣自2010年以來,淨利潤一直高速增長,年複合增速高達61.1%,這是其他競爭對手望塵莫及的! 而中央政府推動潔淨能源的決心不容忽視,煤改氣的政策,可見的將來也不會取消,顯然,燃氣行業,正處於安全的風口位。
中國燃氣是燃氣業的領頭羊,公司擁有508個管道燃氣的專營權,是其主要對手華潤燃氣的2倍及新奧能源的3倍,領導地位暫未受到挑戰。
現時市況波動,許多去年的明星股,如騰訊、吉利汽車、舜宇光學等,都難復當年勇,股價走勢晦暗難明。反之,投資業務清晰,增長穩定的公用股,更合時宜。
 
投資策略
中國燃氣本年的底位是19.70,見於10月2日,其後半個月,迅即返回成交密集區22.50-25.50,經過1個月多整固,現時已突破密集區,並一直守穩SMA 10/20。
預計,股價將保持慢速上升,如回調至SMA 10至SMA 20之間,是一個不錯的買入位,有望挑戰上一個重要阻力位30.00。
 
買入區間:25.90-26.20
目標價:30.00
止蝕位:25.00
 
本人為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益。
 
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