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黃家豪先生(Karl Wong)
交易員

現任職輝立交易員,有多年投資股票、期權及期貨經驗。歡迎各位交流心得。
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龍光地產 (3380.HK) -- 深耕大灣區發展

Monday, December 10, 2018 Views1656

公司簡介

龍光地產控股有限公司是中國一家以住宅開發為主,深耕於粵港澳大灣區的一體化物業發展商。於2017年,集團位列中國房地產百強企業第29位、「中國房地產百強企業 — 盈利性TOP10」第4位,品牌及綜合實力獲得社會各界的關注和認可。

 

大灣區發展潛力巨大

2017年第十二屆全國人大五次會議上首度將「粵港澳大灣區」寫入《政府工作報告》,並提升至國家戰略層面,與京津冀、長三角經濟區等同,同時成為「一帶一路」倡議的延伸。從下圖中數據所見,粵港澳大灣區經濟發展潛力與世界著名灣區不相伯仲。

而截止2018年6月30日,龍光地產的土地儲備總建築面積超過3500萬平方米,平均土地儲備成本為每平方米人民幣3,943元,土儲總貨值為人民幣6,412億元,若以貨值計算,粵港澳大灣區佔比超過72%,相信可從大灣區發展中受惠。

 

全年業績理想,盈利能力強勁

2017年年報披露全年合約銷售金額人民幣434.21億元,同比增長51.2%;合約銷售均價人民幣17,096元/平米,同比上漲44.0%,實現核心溢利人民幣46.2億元,同比增長48.7%。龍光地產的核心淨利率16.7%,處於行業領先水平。較高的盈利能力主要得益於其對土地成本的控制。另外,龍光在招拍掛市場避開行業上升週期高價拿地,而且同時積極通過併購及粵港澳大灣區的城市更新項目獲取成本較低廉的土地。

 

業績確定性高,增長前景可期

2018年初龍光地產提出了全年權益合約銷售目標為人民幣660億元,2018-2020年業績複合增長率50%以上、以及3-5年內核心利潤行業前十的目標,管理層甚至在8月中期業績會上調2018年合約銷售目標至700億元。

今年前十個月,龍光地產合約銷售額約為人民幣598.7億元,同比增長71.5%,合約銷售面積約為334.4萬平方米。按此計算,前10月龍光地產已完成全年銷售目標的85.5%,可見龍光地產的增長前景確定性比較高。

 

優化債務結構,降低融資成本

中期報告披露龍光地產的淨債項權益比率為66.3%,而流動比率及速動比率則為1.32和0.90均優於行業平均水平。

此外,龍光於2017年下半年提前贖回2017年和2019年到期的票面利率較高的美元優先票據,降低了集團的利息支出。而集團的加權平均借款利率僅為5.8%,可見融資成本低於行業平均水平,為未來增長和高盈利能力提供充足燃料。

 

投資策略

買入價: 8

目標價: 10.7

上蝕價: 7.3

 

 

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