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馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)
經理

現任職輝立交易員,對投資股票、期權經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
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中交建憧憬受惠中央政策

Monday, December 17, 2018 Views855
  • 一年一度的中央經濟工作會議於上周召開, 市場一般相信中央政府將會調低明年經濟增長, 由今年的 6.5% 降至 6.4%.
  • 同時, 中央為應對經濟下行壓力, 相信稍後時間會推出更積極的財政政策, 及或於貨幣政策上採取更加寬鬆的態度.
  • 另一方面, 發改委宣布:將會支持信用優良, 經營穩健, 對產業結構轉型升級的優質企業發行企業債券; 當中有提及房地產行業 ...... 「在落實中央的地產調控決定下, 發改委企業債只支持棚改, 保障房及租賃房項目, 但不包括商業地產項目.」
  • 在憧憬種種刺激措施的情況下, 預期建築相關的基建板塊可直接受惠.
  • 香港投資者較熟識的中資基建股為:中國中鐵 (390.HK)、中國鐵建 (1186.HK)及中國交通建設 (1800.HK).
  • 相比之下, 中國中鐵及中國鐵建今年均有不俗的表現, 雙雙分別創下一年新高; 反觀中國交通建設的股價表現就遜色得多, 上周五 (2018年12月14日) 收市價為 HK$7.58 – 較 2017年12月29日的HK$8.88, 跌近15%.
  • 相比上述三隻股份的基本估值如下:

 

中國中鐵 (390.HK)

市賬率 = 0.981x

市盈率 = 9.191x

股息率 = 1.854%

 

中國鐵建 (1186.HK)

市賬率 = 0.91x

市盈率 = 7.848x

股息率 = 2.024%

 

中國交通建設 (1800.HK)

市賬率 = 0.564x

市盈率 = 5.118x

股息率 = 不適用

 

  • 中交建上半年錄得收入2076億元人民幣, 按年增長約16%; 純利 83億人民幣, 較去年同期多賺約 5%. 期內新簽合同總額 4287.7億元人民幣, 上升 1.7%; 截至 6月底未完成合同共一萬五千五百億元人民幣.
  • 相比起中國中鐵、中國鐵建, 中交建上半年業績確實較為遜色, 主要因為年來「一帶一路」屢遇挫折所拖累. 但中交建第三季業績已見起色, 相信下半年業績會有改善.
  • 若以全年純利增長 11% 計, 預測市盈率將會進一步降至 4.3x. 以目前估值較低 + 憧憬業績有機會反彈的情況下, 中交建有一定的吸納價值.
  • 以保歷加通道下軸 = HK$7.33 為買入價, 上望目標價為 2018年11月19日高位 = HK$7.97, 止蝕價 = 2018年10月30日低位 HK$6.96.

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