Market Brief

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Author

林振寶先生(Vincent Lam)
輝立証券業務及市場經理

自從地鐵開始招股,本人就開始研究股票,了解公司的管理層,股價上落的模式。股票有一條好重要的常規,就是股價會反映所有一切資訊。 金融市場由牛市到熊市,熊市到牛市,恐慌到貪婪,貪婪到恐慌,相信歷史會永遠重演,但是人總會重覆犯錯
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為何超級散戶在牛市三期才決定長線投資呢?他們能夠賺大錢嗎?

Tuesday, February 26, 2019 Views1071

        散戶經常問︰究竟現在是牛市或熊市呢?其實谷歌大神已經有無數篇文章有關牛熊市的定義,所以我不在這裏多解釋。總之,牛市分三期,熊市也分三期,總共有六個階段,如果牛市及熊市實際理解就像1+1 等於二就最簡單及理想,奈何不是這麼簡單的,牛市及熊市是絕對不能即時準確判斷的,只有後知後覺。

      

        牛市是由牛市一期開始轉到牛市二期再轉到牛市三期,然後轉變成熊市一期、熊市二期及熊三,再轉返牛市一期,但討論歸討論,大多數是存在混合階段,其中牛市三期同時也是熊市一期階段,而熊市三期也是牛市一期的開端,熊三即是過度拋售,投資者會趁低吸納,這就是人棄我取的策略,牛三就是大市到達尾聲了。要判斷牛熊市,是否真能幫助散戶選股呢?非也,上年2018年下半年就是熊市,但中移動(941)就升超過一成。

 

        什麼是超級散戶呢?其實是平時極少參與買賣的散戶(稱為超級散戶),為何當大量超級散戶入市就是大調整的開始呢?當牛一出現時(熊市三期),他們不相信以及視為反彈,認為未見底。當大市再升,去到牛市二期,他們認為仍然是反彈浪以及會再探底一次,認為必定還有一次機會可以最低位買到心儀的股票,以及股價由低位上升了,有些高追接火棒的心態。當大市忽然回落然後又再大升之際,此時實際是進入了牛三階段,眼見其他朋友在股市中(新股或大、細價股)賺大錢,而自己還是原地踏步,於是做了一些所謂研究就急不及待衝入市,市場上終於出現一批超級散戶入市高追股票。起初他們會賺到一些快錢,然後不貪心的情況下而沽了,忽然大市又再升,然後又再入市高追,然後不貪心地沽貨然後大市又再升,最後他們決定不理風險的情況下買入股票做長線投資,最後結果是…你懂的! 有部份人會止蝕,另外的會長線持有當然帳面是虧蝕的。

 

        其實上面內容已經提示過,其實牛市三期亦是熊市一期階段,牛市三期那些價值是超級高估了公司的實際價值(Over-valued),基金經理此時也會逐步地沽貨。最成功的投資就是由牛市一期開始持有股票,到牛市三期才沽貨,但超級散戶則剛好相反,他們覺得只有牛市三期才能贏到大錢,其實不是錯的,只要不是長線持有就可行了。 現在牛市及熊市的週期越來越短,為什麼呢?正正就是美國推行量化寛鬆措施。有時一年已經經歷了牛市及熊市週期,以往一般週期是八至十年一次的。

      

        現在恒指剛由24xxx 點升到29xxx點,市場人士認為只是熊市的反彈浪,結果是導致大家錯失了這5000 點的賺錢機會。 這無辦法了,只怪大家不認識金融這條金科玉律,[股票價格反映一切資訊] 以及借貨沽空所帶動升市的威力了。

 

        想與本作者互動,可以進入輝立公司的網站 , www.poems.com.hk  選 金融進修中心 → 講師 - > Vincent Lam  電郵我 vincentlam@phillip.com.hk

       

        歡迎任何人引述我的文章到別處,只需要知會本人就可以,謝謝!!!

 

作者:本人林振寶為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人沒有持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益。 以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。

 

 

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