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Author

孫慶輝先生 (Henry Suen)
輝立証券助理聯席董事

現職輝立助理聯席董事,畢業於香港中文大學工商管理學院,於銀行業及證券業工作超過10年,實戰經驗豐富,為特許財務分析師(CFA)及註冊財富管理師(CFMP)。
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A股轉強 港股整固 金山可吼

Monday, March 11, 2019 Views831
受惠中美貿易談判進展良好、MSCI增加A股權重,以及內地計劃今年大幅降費減稅愈2萬億人民幣,A股牛氣旺盛,上証指數由年初低位2440點一度飆升至3100以上,短短2個月狂升超過20%。更加由於正值兩會期間,市場對中央政府救市政策多有憧憬,投資氣氛顯著改善,恆生指數亦一度升至29000點水平,不過29000點有明顯阻力,屢攻不破,上星期尾隨A股顯著回吐,暫時退守250天線支持(約28200點)。

不過,我認為環球牛市仍然可持續一段時間,主要考慮以下四個假設:
環球央行鴿了、救市資金厚了、貿易戰停了、英國脫歐延了,四個假設同時發生的機會頗大,總括而言,壞消息過去、好消息降臨,熱錢將主導短期股市走勢。

當然,若上述其中一個假設走樣,市況亦可能要重新評估。不過短線氣氛仍然理想,科技股板塊亦有所轉強,可以考慮襯回吐買入估值便宜而股價落後的中型科技股金山軟件(3888),市盈率不足6倍,市賬率只有約1.5倍,無論比較手遊股(如IGG #799),還是軟件股(如金蝶國際 #268),金山軟件估值都相當便宜,可小注買入,短線部署,目標價20元阻力。
 


 

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