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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 23 April 2019

Tuesday, April 23, 2019 Views958

23 April 2019

 

上週四個交易日,週一期指在30158高開,早段做出周內高位30336,之後一直跌到尾市收29825,雖不至於穿頭破腳,卻是一支大陰燭;週二早段見周內低位29696,之後一路推高收報30124,當天的大陽燭幾乎將週一的大陰燭全部“吃掉”,週三開30169,收30159,是高位橫行黑十字星,週四下跌,收報29940,一周計下跌10點,周線圖連跌兩周,自三月初升抵29000以來,周線圖已是第二次出現連跌兩周情況,自那以後沒有出現連升三周的情況,並且過去八周的收市價有五周是下跌的,只有三周是上升的,期間指數仍在上升但升跌韻律已微妙地轉弱。上周保曆加通道的寬度%BW報20.95%,比其一周輕微拉寬0.15%。十八周STC的18K%報94.77,5D%在92.60,還沒有發出沽貨信號。周線圖陰陽燭連續兩周呈陰燭,高位沽壓開始出現。

 

期指日線圖上,關注的重點應該是MACD,上週四收市後,MACD跌破其Signal線,是在背馳狀態下跌破的,左側Signal的最高點是2月27日的481.64,當日期指收報28737。這次技術上的壓力可能短期內下試20sma,20sma上週四在29567,本周將升到29600以上。上周低位29696是下方最近的支持,若果日內失守,估計也只會跌到29600附近,因為第一次下試20sma就跌破的機會較小。從四度空間圖上觀察,四月已經形成的價值區在29700-30200之間,若周初守穩29600-29700,本周再次向上測試30200的可能性存在。

 

波浪分析,比較大的可能是C-[c]上升已在上週一的30336找到終點,若果這一判斷接近事實,自30336向下的波浪有兩種可能,第一是D浪下跌,第二個可能:30336已是[2]-(B)浪反彈的終點,30336向下是[2]-(C)浪下跌上臺運行。若果是D浪下跌,大概跌到29000附近,最遠去到28500,若果是[2]-(C)浪下跌,遲早會跌破250sma。從目前的基本因素來看,本人認為是D浪下跌的機會較大,D浪調整完成後,還有E浪上升,向32000點進發,完成牛市第一階段的[3]-(1)浪。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。


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