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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 14 May 2019

Tuesday, May 14, 2019 Views874

14 May 2019

 

受中美貿易談判破局的不利影響,上週一期指裂口低開578點,在29285開出,兩小時內跌到28687,最多時跌1176點,之後開始反彈,週二早段最高見到29242,在前一天的裂口位下方止步,之後轉輾下跌到週五下午初段,最低做27935,收市報28327,一周計下跌1536點或5.14%,跌幅之大可以排列近幾年來的第二位,僅次於去年二月初的一周跌幅。經此一跌,周線圖技術走勢徹底變壞,韻律方面,過去五周跌四周升一周,是今年來最弱表現;九周RSI報44.74,是年初升浪以來第一次跌破50;十八周STC三周以前發出沽貨信號,當時周末期指收市報29578,上周18K%報79.15,5D%報87.30;MACD自去年十一月初低位負1014開始向上爬升,上周第一次回頭向下,雖然仍在Signal線以上,但Diff已大幅回落,估計本周將發出牛熊信號;十八周保曆加通道的中線上周位於28651,已經被跌破,年初以來在中線以上交易已維持了十七周時間,後市若不能重返中線以上交易,下降趨勢會繼續維持。

 

期指日線圖上的主要看點,上週三收市28793,已跌到Ichimoku圖雲層之中,上週四收市價正式跌到雲底以下,自一月初升到雲層以上交易以來,上升趨勢一直維持良好,這是第一次跌破雲層,宣告維持了四個月的上升趨勢已結束,由於雲層上移的速度頗快,本週末雲頂位置去到29646,若短期內無力重返雲層以上,下跌趨勢差不多可以肯定已降臨。上週四9RSI報30.49,非常接近超賣水平,不排除短期底部已非常接近或已經出現,本周可能在250sma以上橫行反彈,消化前一段的沽壓,250sma上週五在27960,仍在緩慢下移中,理論上牛市誕生的第三個條件還沒有成立。十八天保曆加通道的寬度4月29日收到最窄,報2.80%,之後開始拉寬,而且越拉越寬,上週五報7.91%,通道的中線4月30日開始向下彎,說明動力方向已轉為向下,之後中線和下線下移的速度越來越快,上週五下線位於28318,收市價雖然略高於下線,但下線仍在快速下移中,估計直到本周內的某一天,日中低位不再低於通道下線,指數才有機會喘定。小時圖9RSI的最低值是上週四尾市,報17.28,當時指數是28024,之後小時圖收市價沒有出現新低,估計本周內小時圖若有新低收市指數出現,9RSI將處在背馳狀態,有利出現反彈,小時圖的阻力看9RSI再次升到50-60時。

 

波浪分析:過去幾個月都傾向去年十月低位24526已是[2]浪的底部,24526向上應是[3]-(1)浪上升,而(1)浪內部是一組斜線三角形的A-B-C-D-E五浪上升,4月15日高位30336已走完浪C浪全部,自30336向下應該是D浪下跌,並且提出D浪調整的目標在28900-29000之間,其中一個重要的考慮就是中美貿易談判雖然艱巨但不至於破局,技術上日線圖Ichimoku的雲層會有支持,令中期上升趨勢不會扭轉,有條件在D浪調整完成後展開E浪上升。經過上周的突發事件,沽壓之大令Ichimoku的雲層不堪一擊,跌到28000以下,還不清楚本周能否站穩在250sma之上,D浪調整的假設不得不放棄,取而代之的數浪方法是去年十月的24526並非已是[2]浪的終點,24526可能只是[2]-(A)浪的終點,24526升到30336,這組A-B-C上升浪可能是[2]-(B)浪,30336向下是[2]-(C)浪開始運行,至於[2]-(C)浪的終點是否跌破24526並不重要,因為整組[2]浪可以是三角形也可以是之字形,若是三角形,未來將不跌破24526,若跌破24526,就是之字形。[2]-(C)浪的浪底估計最快要到七月出現。(C)浪的內部結構暫時假設為是A-B-C三浪,上周低位27935有條件已是A浪的底部,正如上文所說,由於小時圖9RSI尚未見到背馳,不排除本周有新低指數出現時才是A浪浪底。A浪的內部結構,觀察半小時圖可以細分為[a]-[b]-[c]三個小浪,30336>29447是[a]浪下跌,[a]浪跌889點,運行89個時段,29447>29875是[b]浪上升,[b]浪升428點,運行64個時段,29875向下是[c]浪下跌,到上週五見27935已完成跌幅1940點,運行59個時段,[c]浪的長度已達到[a]浪的2.18倍,但運行59個時段略嫌不夠。本周入市策略,等小時圖技術牛背馳成立後,好倉入市博B浪反彈。估計B浪會比較複雜,運行時間可能長達3-4周,反彈目標看Ichimoku的雲底。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。

 
 
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