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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 20 May 2019

Monday, May 20, 2019 Views774

20 May 2019

 

上週一假期,週二期指裂口低開700點,在27627開出,很快出現反彈,週二到週四處於反復推高局面,直到週五在28275開出,接近前週五收市價28327,遇到阻力,被急速沽落,下午最低見27673,雖然沒有跌破週二的最低價27602,卻以近期的最低價27730收市,一周計下跌597點。周線圖MACD發出牛熊信號,翻查對上一次周線圖MACD發出牛熊信號之後的情況,2018年二月中見牛熊信號後,期指再下跌37周才見底,期間實現跌幅6439點(30965-24526)或20.8%,雖然周線圖發出牛熊信號後的情況不盡相同,但目前的下跌屬於中期調整的機會不容低估。周線圖收市價已連續兩周低於保曆加通道通道的中線,上週五收市後中線位於28684,下線位於26868,由於通道仍在收窄又不算太窄,%BW報13.02%,未來幾周的下線支持作用應該不錯,而中線的阻力作用將比較明顯,估計六月底之前的交易範圍大約在27000-28800之間。

 

期指日線圖上,保曆加通道的寬度%BW上週二至週五依次報9.42%、10.16%、10.57%和10.84%,可以看到下跌動力有所收斂,通道下線在27447,仍在下移中,本周內指數再測試下線的機會存在,但跌出通道的機會似乎也不大,上方最近的阻力是10sma,本周尾10sma將下移到28000附近。十四天RSI最低值是5月9日見到,報30.49,接近超賣,到上週五14RSI報32.43,輕微背馳,但時間跨度只有五個交易日,力度有限;十八天STC的18K%報13.89,5D%在14.53,還沒有發出買入信號,日內若見18K%升穿5D%,建議平淡倉,若好倉入市,要設止蝕位,可以設在信號出現之前的低位以下減100點,以策安全。好倉的離場位置通常不易掌握,建議當小時圖9RSI到達60-70之間應該將好倉套利。

 

波浪分析,上周提到30336向下是[2]-(C)浪下跌,(C)浪內部暫時假設會上演A-B-C三個浪,A浪自30336跌到29447是A-[a]浪下跌,29447>29875是A-[b]浪反彈,29875向下是A-[c]浪下跌,目前處在A-[c]浪尋底階段。[c]浪的內部結構很可能是(a)-(b)-(c)-(d)-(c)五浪下跌,詳見半小時圖,上週二低位27602是(c)浪浪底,27602>28279是(d)浪反彈,28279向下是(e)浪下跌,(e)浪內部也應該見到a-b-c三個微浪,上週五低位27673還不能肯定是(e)-a浪浪底,估計今天大部分時間會作(e)-b浪反彈,最後一個微浪,A-[c]-(e)-c浪浪底最快明天見到,最慢拖到本週三出現,之後將進入B浪反彈,估計B浪的結構會比較複雜,以後再跟進。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。


 

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