Market Brief

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Author

許偉龍先生(Anthony Hui)
高級交易員

現任職輝立高級交易員,對投資股票經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
Phone:
36533066

青島啤酒股份有限公司 (00168.HK)

Friday, December 13, 2019 Views6380

業務概要: 集團經營範圍是啤酒製造、銷售以及與之相關的業務。目前集團在國內擁有56家啤酒生產企業,分布於全國18個省市地區,規模和市場份額居國內啤酒行業領先地位。其生產的青島啤酒營銷世界70餘個國家和地區。

 

基本資料 :

現價: $50.35

市值: 329.83億

市盈率: 42倍

周息率: 1.085%

52週高/低: $55 /$30

10天/50天/250天平均價 : $49.495/ $48.24/ $43.773

 

業務回顧:

截至2019年9月30日止的第三季度業績,青島啤酒的收入增長5.31%至248.97億元人民幣。純利增長27.55%至22.98億元人民幣。收入增長由於產品銷量增加以及產品結構優化貢獻明顯。

 

評論:

第一,臨近年底,聖誕及春節將至,派對少不免以酒助興,相信可以刺激啤酒的銷量上升。

 

第二,行業中市盈率較低。

第三, AH股存在差價,撰寫本文章時,H股股價為$ 50.35,而A股股價為¥51.74,折合為港幣57.48(以1人民幣= 1.110864 港幣計算),兩者存在溢價12.4%。。

 

第四,拓展新市場, 青啤7月開始推出一種啤酒以外的飲料--海藻蘇打水, 最近出現在了新加坡各大商場、超市的貨架之上。憑藉著“抗氧化、強免疫”的功效,這款由青島啤酒出品的海藻蘇打水早已在中國市場中掀起一波“海藻”熱潮,此次在新加坡甫一登陸,便吸引了無數本地消費者的關注。。

 

第五,關廠進程持續,有望釋放費用率空間。各企業減員增效措施正在落實。青啤提出5年關閉10家工廠規劃,於今年完成2家工廠優化。

 

第六,原材料成本壓力有所緩解。啤麥價格近期有所回落,儘管存在反傾銷調查等不確定因素,但需求疲弱疊加主產區產量提升令增幅收窄明顯。瓦楞紙方面中長期國內需求端及出口壓力仍在,疊加行業未來幾年新增產能規劃,不具備大幅上漲條件。有利於青啤的毛利率。

 

第七,高端化趨勢進展順利。高端化早已成為啤酒行業內的共識,青島啤酒在開發“經典1903、全麥白啤、黑啤、皮爾森、青島啤酒IPA”等高端品類的同時,不斷推出魔獸罐、深夜食堂罐、戰狼罐、12星座鋁瓶等定制產品,還在國內一線城市的地標開設了Tsingtao 1903社區客廳以鞏固差異化優勢。業績是最好的證明,青島啤酒2019年中期業績的出爐,給市場不小的驚喜。作為行業龍頭,青島啤酒深耕中高端啤酒市場,實現了銷量、銷售收入、淨利潤持續增長,品牌價值持續攀升。而三季報顯示主要企業噸價維持中單位數增幅,中高檔產品銷量增長顯著高於企業其他產品。

 

 

買賣策略
買入價: $48.25 (黃金比率 0.5預料有支持)

目標價: $55

止蝕價: $43.42

 

資料來源: 披露易,2019年第三季度報告,新浪財經

 

註:本人許偉龍為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。

 

 

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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