Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

馮兆山先生(Michael Fung)
經理

現任職輝立經理,對投資股票、期權經驗豐富。本人樂意為客戶提供投資分析及買賣策略。歡迎各位來電交流心得。
Phone:
22776655

中電控股(002.HK) – 穩健收息之選

Tuesday, June 23, 2020 Views4656

# 主要業務:

中電控股的主要業務為發電及提供供電服務.

 

# 最新業績:

中電控股公布, 截至2020年3月31日止的三個月第一季度業績, 共派中期股息每股0.63港元.

 

# 業務回顧:

 

香港

 

中電控股與港燈一樣, 同樣受限於與政府簽訂的《管制計劃協議》. 最新的協議期限為十五年, 准許回報率強制性被下調至8%.

 

回顧2019年度, 大部分客戶類別的用電需求均見上升, 香港區域的售電量上升1.8%;營運盈利下降一成三至7,448百萬港元, 主要因為要符合上述准許回報率的下調.

 

另外, 中電控股公布將繼續推行多個發展項目, 以逐步減低燃煤發電的比例. 重點發展之一, 為於龍鼓灘發電廠作進一步投資, 一台新增的燃氣機組預計於未來數月投產, 而另一台則預計於2023年投產. 海上液化天然氣接收站的建造工程亦取得進展, 透過直接從世界各地採購天然氣, 項目將進一步提升香港能源供應的穩定性, 便龍鼓灘發電廠現有的天然氣供應來源更多元化.

 

准許回報率下調雖會對中電的盈利表現構成負面影響, 但管制計劃亦為股東回報帶來很大的穩定性. 電力公司如中電控股為了逹致最大化回報率, 會透過發展計劃來提高限額, 但相信限額不會一次性的大幅度增加, 反而資產規模會隨時間逐漸增加. 這樣, 管制計劃就可以讓投資者對其回報有更明確的預期.

 

中國內地

 

零碳發電組合繼續是推動中國內地業務增長的主要動力.

 

大亞灣核電站和陽江核電站為集團提供穩定盈利, 而多元化的可再生能源發電組合, 包括水電, 風電及太陽能光伏設施, 於年內帶來了更高的盈利貢獻. 因煤價下調和產電量上升, 防城港電廠的盈利貢獻也有所增加. 整體中國內地業務而言, 2019年度的營運盈利上升5.3%至2,277百萬港元.

 

印度

 

中電控股於十多年前已開始發展印度業務, 但近年始引入CDPQ為中電印度的策略性股東, 冀能為中電於印度市場的未來發展有更明確的方向.

 

市場人士認為, 印度的電力市場目前仍未成熟, 仍需要加強電網發展, 才能配合全國轉型至更潔淨能源, 以使整體電力系統更趨穩定. 個人相信, 中電控股可能要等十年以上才會產生明顯的效益. 換句話說, 要受惠於中電在印度市場的開拓和增長, 投資者的投資年期可能需要拉長.

 

 

# 長線收息之選

 

以目前中電控股的業務組合來看, 香港業務增加了集團盈利的穩定性, 中國和印度市場的增長潛力相信於未來數年會陸續被實現, 可為中電帶來長線的增長動力.

 

無可否認, 中電控股所持有的是非常優質的資產, 以目前超過4厘的派息率來看, 值得投資者作中長線投資及收息之選.

 

建議吸納價 = 2020年3月低位:$65.0, 4月份低位:$69.9, 5月份低位:$75.1, 作出分階段吸納. 若股價跌破 $61.75 則視為下跌趨勢已形成, 可作為止蝕位. 上望目標價為日線圖250天移動平均線 $81.1.

 

本人馮兆山為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益。

 

I, Michael Fung, am a licensed person under the Securities and Futures Commission. Until the date this commentary was published, neither I and/or my affiliates are the beneficiary of the securities mentioned herein or are entitled to any financial interests in relation thereto.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us