Market Brief

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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

聖誕終, 要做空??

Thursday, December 30, 2021 Views10089

港股在2021年表現差勁, 而環球市場, 在來年亦樣充滿變數.
聖誕節已過, 大家是時候部署一下2022年策略

 
2022年最大兩個潛在變數:
‧  變種病毒Omicron
‧ 美國收水 & 加息
 

[A) 變種病毒]
Omicron 變動新冠或帶來最大的不確定性
雖然有研究指新變種傳播力強, 但確診後病情或不太嚴重
 
而Omicron 或在美國及環球迅速蔓延, 隨著更多的數據下, 科學家們或不斷更新對新變種的評論
 
情況一:
Omicron 病毒最終只是像傷風感冒的嚴重性, 對市場是好事
 
情況二:
如大流行的同時, 發現確診病情趨於嚴重, 市場或在短時期內急跌
 

[B. 美國收水 & 加息]
聯儲局將在明年3月結束目前的買債計劃
點陣圖顯示2022、2023年或各加3次息
 
點陣圖只是預測, 最終加息次數及幅度, 仍有很大不確定性.
但如明年加息3次, 從目前接近零息而言, 變化仍將十分巨大
 
聯儲局明年的口風、市埸預測、及具體政策, 都會因實際情況不停變動, 美國及環球股市波動預計將會增加
 
 
 
[潛在影響]:
 
[一: 金價]
聯儲局刪除‘暫時性’通脹的字眼, 提速加息時間表, 令金價向上阻力下移.
雖說在實質負利率下, 金價不一定下跌, 但短線金價在USD 1,820 – 1,830 阻力不弱, ~USD 1,860 更是大位
 
‧  有貨者如見金價升至 ~1,820 – 1,830 可考慮減持
‧  無貨者如見金價 >USD 1,830 可考慮開少量淡倉
 

[二: 美股]
港股和美股差距越來越大, 但礙於形勢, 個人在今年8月再次開設美期好倉.
原預計直至明年農曆年前, 美期仍有一輪升浪, 當時打算一直持有美期好倉至 2022年1月. 在2022年首季, 才視乎市況, 決定是否在好倉止賺後, 反手做淡.
 
但在上文提及2大變數下, 已在過去數日, 先把 Dows 及 S&P (道指 & 標普) 期貨好倉先行止賺.
(不是說美期會轉頭下跌, 但形勢有變, 不打算賺盡可能是最後一輪的升幅)
 
‧  美期 e.g. Dows, S&P, Nasdaq 做淡
‧  這需要一定技巧, 目前指數水平, 少量分注開倉還好
‧  美國最終加息次數, 或少/多於 點陣圖預測, 美期或會波動
‧  美期做淡的話, e.g. Dows, 在~38,000點水平開倉, 把握會較大
 
 
 
 
註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.
市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.
 
註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.
期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.
 
以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.
 
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