Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

末日未到, 買賣末日期權要趁早

Friday, January 21, 2022 Views9708

變種新冠病毒蔓延

但......確診後患者病情普遍不太嚴重

 

美國快將加息

但......聯儲局官員偶爾會釋放對利率偏好訊號

 

不論是世界末日/金融市場末日似遠還未到

 

恆指較上月低位曾急彈近2,000點 (13/1), 但在基本面不變的情況下, [當時中國尚未推出近日的政策減息(MLF & LPR], 這反彈速度會否快了點?

~24,600點, 不能說是太高的水平, 但個別大行預計恆指年底只有25,000點, <- (非主流, 因另外好些大行都預測恆指有~28,000)

而當時恆指的上升速度似乎真的快了點

 

[圖片]

[圖1:恆指 ~3星期從低位返彈 ~2,000點]

[圖片]

 

不捨得沽期/ 沽出手上持貨的前提下, 可否投機性做些Long Put

 

每週期權(Weekly Option) 14/1 到期, 基於恆指反彈太快, 個人在13/1 Long 了一張行使價 24,200 Put (前提: 不影響主力倉位部署)

翌日(14/1)早上平倉, 1晚賺300%

 

[圖片]

[圖2: Long Put 開倉: 15點/張, 平倉時: 60點/張]

[圖片]

 

當然, 一張Long Put 金額上利潤不大, [個人目前倉位主力: Stock Option 好倉(如合成期貨) + 指數 Long Future, Short Call, Long Put]

但勝在:

 

[Long 每週期權(末日)好處]

1. 適應性高: 每張成本不大, 基本上大部份投資/機者, 都能付出有關成本

2. 爆發力強, 見效快 (星期四開倉, 翌日結算)

3. 如果今年市況波動, 或有不少投機性出手的機會(註1)

 

當然, 如恆指翌日不跌, 有關Long Put 很大機會全數虧損.

而因結算機制, 如恆指不是開市後短時間內急跌/全日[持續地]大跌, 即使結算日開市恆指在24,200行使價水平, 這些(末日)每週期權的價格仍會急跌.

所以, 如非金融市場末日,  一般情況個人會在結算日開市不久(10AM前)平倉.

 

[圖片]

[圖3: 行使價24,200, 14/1到期每週期權, 當日早上10:40的價格, 雖然恆指當時24,255點, 和行使價24,200相差不遠, 但期權金已急跌至只有13點]

[圖片]

 

但以上Long Put 例子, 每張最大潛在虧損亦不超過 $750 (每週期權: $50/點)

結果最終獲利 $2,250/張 (3倍利潤)

 

當然, 具體開倉張數視乎個人情況

 

(註1)

美國加息預期, 隨聯儲局官員口風變動

Omicron 變種病毒仍有很大不確定性, 另有中國對科技平台, 內房&金融的政策影響,

2022年恆指應會十分波動, 急升/急跌下, 這類 Long weekly option 的操作, 或有不少機會

 

 

關於美國息口對港股&環球市況的影響, 可參看輝立最新的網上直播頻道

 

《輝常策略》LIVE 1: 今年加4次息?國資煞停入股螞蟻!科技股是見底反彈,還是最後逃生門

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cjVdIPjlWgE&list=PL2wpdplq9iLWJGo696dxTKZXwe_XHLfNd

 

[圖片]

[圖4: 過去30年美國加息期對恆指/道指/納指的影響]

[圖片]

 

註2: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.

 

註3:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限.

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.
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