Market Brief

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Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
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3925 9237

恆指見28,000? 30,000? 還是 40,000點?

Friday, April 10, 2015 Views13361

近日市況見好, 部份投資者正在熱議恆指會升至28,000點還是30,000點.

 

然而, 個人認為在這輪升市, 預測恆指/個股目標價意義不大, 因目標價可以一破再破(升穿目標價). 反而投資者要檢視一下近日升浪的成因及留意這些因素有否逆轉.

 

(A) 近日升浪的成因:
1. 內地公佈允許公募基金經滬港通買賣港股, 利好港股氣氛

2. 復活節假期間外圍市場普遍向好, 助港股假期後復市高開

3. 滬港通港股額度於8/4/2015, 自滬港通推出以來首次用完

4. 港滙偏強, 金管局於9/4/2015 承接美元沽盤, 變相向市場注資31億元

5. 港股8/4/2015 錄得破紀錄高成交(逾2,500億), 恆指同日升961點

 

如港匯及滬港通港股額度這兩個因素持續利好, 大市急轉直下機會較細.

當以上兩個指標未有逆轉, 以一定資產比例, 持有幾隻強勢藍籌/心水細價股, 有機會在這次升浪中賺取到不錯的升幅.

 

 

(B) 期權組合建功

 

4月1日市況評論指出, 投資者可考慮在每套總成本700點以下, Long 四月同一行使價(e.g. 25,000點) Call 及 Put Option, 嘗試賺取大市波幅放大時的潛在利潤.

當日四月行使價25,000 Call Put 期權收市價分別是: 365點 及 269點 (總成本 634點). 個人則於30/3 以平均670點成本/套 Long 四月24,800點 Call Put.

 

8/4/2015 期指收26,244,

四月行使價24,800 Call Put 期權收市價分別是: 1,498點 及 52點 (總值 1,550點)

四月行使價25,000 Call Put 期權收市價分別是: 1,309點 及 75點 (總值 1,384點)

 

以 8/4/2015 收市價比較,

個人24,800點 Long Call Put 總回報: (1,550-670) = 賺880點

在1/4/2015 25,000點 Long Call Put 總回報: (1,384-634) = 賺750點

 

個人已於8/4/2015 全數平倉, 改為買入個別藍籌以追求更佳回報.

而如果沒有心水股票, 一直持有以上 Long Call Put (Straddle) 組合, 於9/4/2015 回報亦不錯.

 

於9/4/2015,

四月行使價24,800 Call Put 期權收市價分別是: 2,322點 及 44點 (總值 2,366點) (賺1,696點)

四月行使價25,000 Call Put 期權收市價分別是: 2,166點 及 61點 (總值 2,227點) (賺1,593點)

 

 

1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.

市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.


 

2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.

期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 最大潛在損失是無限.


 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

 

 

 

 

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