Market Brief

The articles are produced in Chinese only.

Author

區良鍵先生(George Au)
業務副董事

工商管理(財務系)畢業, 有十多年投資經驗, 經歷過股災及大大小小的升/跌市. 善於配合基礎因素及技術分析, 整合不同投資工具, 在不同市況下作出相應投資決定. 熟悉本地投資市場, 尤精於股票期權、指數期權及期貨投資.
Phone:
3925 9237

重倉又何懼?!

Monday, June 15, 2015 Views12279

4/6 恆指收 27,552, 9/6 跌至 26,990點, 10/6 在26,688收市, 最低更見 26,574點. 以4/6-10/6 計, 恆指跌近千點.

如果投資者在4/6持有一張6月期貨, 或約 137萬股票貨值, 如有關股票走勢及幅度和大市相同, 至10/6 收市投資者帳面損失約 $53,400.

期間6月期貨收市價是:
3/6      27,369點
4/6      27,450點
9/6      26,734點
10/6    26,382點

4/6 在市況評論提及可考慮就大市潛在下跌風險部署一些風險管理策略, 詳細內容及升市後影響請參看以下連結:

http://www.poems.com.hk/zh-hk/research-and-analysis/market-brief/?id=8737&cid=9%2c22

現和大家看看在指數下跌時有關組合的效果:

(A)
4/6 風險管理策略部份內容:
Quote:
以3/6收市價而言, 6月恆指收 27,369點, 投資者可考慮:
1. Short 6月 28,800 Call (e.g. 3張) 每張 93點
2. Long 6月 26,600 Put (e.g. 2張), 每張 216點
(以上每套組合要附期權金 153點)
/Unquote

(B)
文章是4/6發出, 如果用當日價格計, 成本更佳.
1. Short 6月 28,800 Call (e.g. 3張) 每張 122點
2. Long 6月 26,600 Put (e.g. 2張), 每張 229點
(以上每套組合要附期權金 92點)

(C)
下表可分別看到用3/6價格或4/6開倉, 至9/4 及 10/4 的回報.


如投資者是用 3/6相關價格買入期指, 至 9/6 及 10/6 損失 635 點及 987點.
如投資者是用 4/6相關價格買入期指, 至 9/6 及 10/6 損失 716 點及 1,068點.

但和上表期權組合的利潤比較, 大家可發現以上期權組合的利潤幾乎/甚至完全能追回持有期貨的損失. (甚至有關利潤更多於持有1張期貨所帶來的損失)

預計6月及以後港股仍將繼續波動, 何時為個別風險管理策略 (e.g. Short Call 或 Long Put) 平倉,  亦尤為重要. 投資者亦應考慮不同的方法, 思考如何保障自己的持股/帳面利潤(如有).


註1: 具體及即時買賣策略只會向個人客戶提出.
市況可隨時變化, 網站文章不一定會及時更新. 投資者宜向個人經紀查詢意見.
註2:期貨及期權價格可升可跌, 投資可賺可蝕.
期貨及期權買賣有槓桿效應, 可放大潛在利潤及損失. 潛在最大損失可以無限. (包括指數上升時)

以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。本人區良鍵為證監會持牌人,本人及/或其有聯繫者會隨時就不同情況買賣上述分析的相關資產.

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