Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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2277 6666

回補4月的上升裂口?

Monday, July 22, 2024 Views427

港股未能延續前周升勢,上周反而掉頭回落,周五最低見到17376,見回7月9日前周二的低位,收報17418,相對前周下跌了875點,跌幅4.8%,結束了連續兩周的升勢.國指和科指按周分別下跌5.6%和6.5%,也都結束了連續兩周的升勢.市場觀望三中全會,迭加上周公布的中國經濟數據差於預期,為股市帶來沽壓.中國次季國內生產總值(GDP)同比增長4.7%,增速較第一季度的5.3%放緩,也低於預期的5.1%,為五個季度以來最慢.單看6月,儘管規模以上工業增加值勝預期,按年增長5.3%,但社會消費品零售總額僅升2%,遠遜預期的3.4%.投資方面,上半年中國全國固定資產投資同比增長3.9%,符合市場預期,但房地產開發投資下降10.1%,嚴重拖累固定資產增速,進而拖累了經濟成長.不過,數據對滬深股市未有太大影響,上證成指和深證成指按周分別上升了0.4%和1.1%.

美股方面,三大指數上周均下跌.其中,標準普爾500指數跌幅近2%,是自4月以來表現最差的一周.微軟電腦系統故障,令科技股特別是半導體股下跌,納指周跌幅達3.65%.受惠資金輪動,道指反而上升0.7%,以小企為主的羅素2000指數更錄得1.7%周升幅.經濟數據方面,美國最新一周首次申請失業救濟人數升至24.3萬人,按周增加2萬人,顯著高於市場預期的22.9萬人.截至7月6日止當周,美國續領失業救濟人數186.7萬人,按周增加2萬人,市場預期為185.6萬人.上周發表的聯儲局褐皮書指出,經濟成長疲軟,就業人數僅略有增加,勞動力流動率下降.數據提升了市場對聯儲局9月減息預期,而聯儲局官員上周亦發出利好減息言論.

說回港股,恆指仍處於17300-18300的波動區間,但值得注意的是,上周五恆指收市指數首次跌穿100天和250天線(兩線現時分別處於17576和17476位置).未來如確認跌穿100天和250天線,將繼續下行,或將回補4月遺留下來還未補回的上升裂口.其中較近的一個出現於4月24日,介於16846和16935之間,闊89點.再下一個上升裂口出現於4月22日,介於16255和16411之間,闊156點.
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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