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昔日報告:
  03-08-2020 (星期一) 第二季度經濟復蘇,拉動紡織服飾業務
  14-07-2020 (星期二) 內房基本面復甦能力較強,下半年將迎來行業旺季
  22-06-2020 (星期一) 特斯拉國産車突破萬輛,電動化趨勢加速
  01-06-2020 (星期一) 歐洲新能源汽車銷量一枝獨秀,有望繼續受益於超預期的刺激政策
  11-05-2020 (星期一) “新基建”重回軌道 投放持續增加
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第二季度經濟復蘇,拉動紡織服飾業務

上半年過去,受新冠肺炎影響,全球經濟陷入衰退,早前德國和美國公佈今年第二季GDP,分別較前一季下跌10.1%和32.9%,均為有紀錄以來最大跌幅。與之相比,美國在2008年金融危機期間最大跌幅為8. 4%。而作為第一批受影響的國家,中國早前公布第二季 GDP 環比增加11.5%,復蘇跡象明顯。上半年中國 GDP 總值人民幣 45.66 兆元,按年減 1.6%。

在下半年,非必需消費品板塊預計將乘著經濟復蘇的趨勢,收復今年的跌幅,當中以紡織服飾板塊值得關注。從基本面方面,5-6月行業基本與去年同期相若,服飾類社會消費品零售數據達到去年同期水準。而從國際層面,5-6月歐美開始復工復產,全球供應鏈開始慢慢恢復。紡織服飾生產鏈中的主要國家如越南等亦開始見復蘇跡象。

在國內疫情受控的背景下,內需巿場將以較快的速度回復,當中運動品牌在第二季度恢復進度良好,Nike 和Adidas 第二季度在大中華地區的銷量回復去年水平。我們認為,上半年受疫情影響,不少優勢企業出現少有的低估機會,而下半年服飾行業將在內需恢復中得益。我們認為板塊中的龍頭企業的業績韌性較強,推薦安踏體育(2020.HK) 、李寧(2331.HK)。

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