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昔日報告:
  08-07-2019 (星期一) 中央政策支持內需 留意啤酒龍頭企業
  24-06-2019 (星期一) 中美貿易戰出現緩和跡象,受影響公司或現轉機
  11-06-2019 (星期二) 工信部發放四張5G牌照,5G建設有望加快
  27-05-2019 (星期一) “兩免三減半”政策終落地,集成電路產業再迎黃金發展期
  14-05-2019 (星期二) 非洲豬瘟使國內產量減少,豬肉價格飛升
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中央政策支持內需 留意啤酒龍頭企業

最近公佈的5月中國工業增加值和固定資產投資數據均表現欠佳,貿易數據更是令人失望,社會消費品零售額則從4月份的逾16年低點反彈至8.6%,成為唯一亮點。在中美貿易戰的背景下,我們仍然維持中國政府有意讓內需更多地帶動經濟增長的預期,並預計在未來一段時間內將透過各種措施,來防止經濟增長跌幅6%的底線。今年3月,全國人大批准了規模為人民幣2兆元的刺激計劃,其中包括能夠刺激內需的減稅降費。

各類內需消費品種類中,啤酒行業值得投資者多加關注。目前行業並出現兩大趨勢,其一為從高度分化過渡到相對整合,前五大釀酒商佔2018年中國啤酒市場總量高達70.4%,整合主要是通過收購較小的地方性啤酒廠實現,意味大型酒商相對優勢較為突出,不少地區性品牌被更大的全國性品牌所取代。

第二個趨勢是向中高端轉型,中低端市場則在萎縮。中國啤酒市場規模按價值計算在2013至2018年複合增長達3.1%,預計至2023年將加快至4.7%,當中高端及超高端啤酒增幅分別為12%及8.5%。故此,我們推薦新股百威亞太(1876)及華潤啤酒(291),百威在高端及超高端類別中為中國市場龍頭,合併市場份額達46.6%,華潤雪花則為整體中國啤酒市場龍頭,市佔率達23.2%,並正向高端轉型。

撰稿: 顧慧宇研究分析員
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