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非洲豬瘟使國內產量減少,豬肉價格飛升

2018年8月中國爆發非洲豬瘟。由於非洲豬瘟傳染性及死亡率高,以及非洲豬瘟目前沒有治療辦法或疫苗,因此瘟情擴展十分迅速。目前,據中國政府公布,超過100萬頭豬已被宰殺。據荷蘭合作銀行(Rabobank)分析師預測,由於感染致死或屠宰,今年中國生豬產量將減少1.5億至2億頭。而中國國家統計局公布最新數據,第1季豬肉產量亦按年減少5.2%至1,463萬噸。

由於產量減少,豬肉價格今年2月一反傳統淡季下跌的趨勢上漲,更升穿非洲豬瘟爆發前的水平。3月全國豬肉批發均價為每公斤19.48元人民幣,環比上漲6.3%,同比亦上升7.6%。如豬肉產量進一步下降,豬肉價格或會上漲,生豬養殖商將會受惠,因此我們建議關注萬洲(0288.HK)、中糧肉食(1610.HK)及溫氏(300498.SH)。

撰稿: 李學滔研究分析員
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