Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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回補上升裂口

Monday, November 18, 2024 Views312

上周評論指出,恆指前周雖曾上破21000,但未能企穩其上,料將回試20270的支持。若然失守,或將考驗20000大關。結果不幸言中,恆指上周連跌五天,上周五最低見到19332,收報19426,相對前周恆指下跌了1302點,跌幅6.3%.國指和科指按周分別下跌6.4%和7.3%。滬深股市上周亦顯著下跌,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別下跌3.5%和3.7%。特朗普勝選後,美元延續強勢,美匯指數一度升穿107水平,接近一年高位。人民幣兌美元中間價跌近7.2,創逾一年低位。此外,上周公布的中國經濟數據大部分差於預期,亦為股市帶來沽壓。其中,10月人民幣貸款只增加5000億元,比預期的7000億元為低。社會融資規模增量為1.4萬億元,較預期的1.545萬億元為少,而且兩者都較去年同期下降。貨幣供應方面,截至10月底,廣義貨幣(M2)按年增加7.5%,連升兩個月,部分受益於資本市場近期回穩,理財資金開始回流存款,而證券客戶保證金亦計入M2中。狹義貨幣(M1)下降6.1%,降幅較首九月的7.4%收窄,部分受惠市場氣氛改善,居民和企業減少動用原有存款還債。

「三頭馬車」數據一好兩壞。其中,10月社會消費品零售總額按年增長4.8%,增速比9月加快1.6個百分點,高於市場預期的3.6%。今年首十個月城鎮固定資產投資按年升3.4%,低於市場預期的3.5%,主要受首十個月房地產開發投資同比下降10.3%(預期下降9.9%)拖累。10月規模以上工業增加值按年增長5.3%,低於9月的5.4%增速,也低於預期的5.8%。

美股三大指數在上周一齊齊創出歷史新高後,開始上升乏力。道指、納指和標普500指數按周分別下跌1.2%、3.15%和2.1%。上周公布的美國經濟數據大部分都強於預期。其中,10月生產者價格指數(PPI)按年升2.4%,高於預期的2.3%,前值為1.8%。核心PPI按年升3.1%,高於預期的3%,前值為2.8%;按月升0.3%,高於預期的0.2%,前值亦為0.2%。另外,美國11月9日當周首次申領失業救濟金人數為21.7萬人,低於預期的21.7萬人,前值為22.1萬人。還有,美國10月先期零售銷售按月升0.4%,高於預期的0.3%,而前值上修至0.8%。10月進口物價指數按年升0.8%,超預期的0.3%;按月則升0.3%,超預期的下跌0.1%。加上聯儲局主席鮑威爾表示,美國經濟增長良好,就業市場穩健,通脹仍高於2%目標,聯儲局因此並不急於降息,而是應當審慎行事,為股市和債市帶來沽壓。

說回港股,恆指跌穿20000-21000波動區間後,最小量度跌幅為1000點,因此可能下試19000,補回9月27日的上升裂口。該上升裂口濶71點,介於19002和19073之間。若然反彈,預計在50天線(19850)附近會有阻力。

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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