Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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恆指受制於250天線阻力

Monday, September 23, 2019 Views2735
恆指上周連跌五日,上周四最低見到26372,周五收報26436,.相對前周下跌了917點,跌幅達3.3%,結束了連續兩周的升勢.國指上周亦連跌五日,上周四最低見到10349,周五收報10376,按周下跌2.9%,亦結束了連續兩周的升勢.香港第二季經濟按年微升0.5%,但按季則倒退0.3%.財政司司長陳茂波預料第三季經濟可能繼續出現負增長,技術上踏入衰退,為港股帶來沽壓.
 
上周公布的宏觀經濟數據都略差於預期,其中1-8月份全國固定資產投資增長5.5%,較1-7月份增速回落0.2個百分點;8月份社會消費消費品零售總額增長7.5%,增速較7月份下降0.1個百分點;8月份規模以上工業增加值增長4.4%,比7月份回落0.4個百分點.雖然數據顯示經濟增長有所放緩,但對A股無大影響,上證綜指仍守住3000點.人民銀行在9月16日全面下調存款準備金率,為年內第三次降準,預料將釋放約9000億元資金.另一方面,人行小幅下調一年期LPR利率0.5個百分點,加上MLF利率調降可能性增大,為股市帶來支持.
 
美股上周止升回跌,三大指數都錄得月內首周下跌,道指按周下跌1.1%,標準普爾500指數和納指分別下跌0.5%和0.7%.聯儲局公開市場委員會一如預期減息四分一厘,7名理事預期年底前仍會再有一次減息.不過,中美貿易談判進展不順利,美國總統特朗普表明拒絕和中國達成"局部性協議",也不認為需要在明年大剖前達成協議,中國代表團隨即取消原訂前往美國農場的訪問,為美股帶來沽壓.
 
說回港股,恆指受制於250天線阻力,上周再度失守10天和50天線,並一度下破20天線,9天相對強弱指數亦再次下破50,顯示上升動力明顯轉弱,20天線恐最終失守.該線現時處於26375水平,亦為恆指小型頭肩底的頸線所在.若確認失守,將下試26000的支持,並意味由24900低位展開的回升浪已告一段落.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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