Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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Monday, February 1, 2021 Views1745
上周評論指出,恆指如能補回1月19日的上升裂口(該上升裂口闊236點,介於28864和29100之間),走勢將更為健康.結果,恆指在上周一創出30191的歷史新高後急速下滑,在上周四補回上述下跌裂口,周五最低見到28260,收報28284,相對前周下跌了1164點,跌幅達3.95%,結束了連續四周的升勢,但按月仍升3.9%.國指亦呈現先高後低走勢,上周最高和最低分別見到11990和11203,收報11209,按周下跌4%,亦結束了連續四周的升勢,但按月仍升4.4%.
 
A股三大指數上周亦顯著下跌,令1月升幅大為收窄.上證綜指上周五收報3483,按周下跌3.4%,按月僅升10點.滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌3.9%和5.2%,按月則分別上升2.7%和2.4%.除了受外圍下跌影響,市場憂慮人民銀行貨幣政策轉向亦是一個原因.近期人行連續地量縮量進行逆回購操作,令資金利率快速上升.市場甚至傳聞人行上調常備借貸便利(SLF)利率並須提前兩天申請,但其後人行已作出澄清和否認.
 
美股方面,散戶大戰對沖基金,令空頭損失慘重.有分析人士憂慮,由此引發的市場劇烈波動恐將波及金融市場.經濟數據方面,受新冠疫情影響,美國2020年全年經濟負增長3.5%,為2009年以來首次錄得負值,並創出自1946年以來新低.此外,聯儲局在上周四進行了2021年首次議息會議,決定維持零利率和資產購買規模不變,由於早在市場預期之內,因此對美股刺激作用不大.
 
說回港股,恆指已相繼跌穿10天和20天線,9天相對強弱指數亦跌穿50,確認大市進入調整階段.這個升浪由去年12月22日低位25999起步,上周一最高升見30191,一共升了4192點,目前已調整了升幅的46%.如調整升幅的一半,將見到28095.只要跌幅不超過升幅的0.618,即不跌穿27600,目前的回落仍可視為調整.
 
本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.
This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
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