Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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未來兩周走勢料有突破

Monday, March 22, 2021 Views2653
上周預期恆指將維持於28500和29500之間波動,缺乏明確方向,結果市況與預期大致相若.美國聯儲局調高經濟預測,並重申有意維持寬鬆貨幣政策,推動恆指在上周四最高升見29597,但美國債息持續攀升,十年期國債孳息突破1.7%,創出14個月新高,令恆指跌回29000以下,上周五收報28991,但相對前仍上升了251點,升幅0.9%.國指上周五收報11284,按周上升約1%.
 
A股震盪走低,上證綜指險守3400,上周五收報3404,按周下跌1.4%,而滬深300和深證成指按周分別下跌2.7%和2.1%.上周公布的中國宏觀經濟數據對股市沒有帶來太大刺激,雖然數據顯示經濟復甦持續推進,例如:1-2月份規模以上工業增加值同比增長35.1%,比2019年同期則增長16.9%,兩年平均增長8.1%.1-2月份全國固定資產投資同比增長35%,比2019年同期增長3.5%,兩年平均增速為1.7%.1-2月份社會消費品零售總額同比增長33.8%,比2019年增長6.4%,兩年平均增長為1.2%.
 
美股方面,除了受債息上升影響,市場擔心歐洲疫情再度惡化影響原油需求,令油價創半年以來最大跌幅.加上聯儲局公布將不會延長於本月到期的銀行資本寬限措施,為金融股帶來沽壓.道指按周下跌了0.5%,而納指和標普500指數周跌幅均為0.8%.
 

說回港股,目前恆指的10天,20天和50天移動平均線開始匯聚,通常出現移動平均線匯聚的現象時,市況都會變得十分飄忽,指數時而升破時而跌破幾條均線,容易出現虛假信號,例如上周四恆指一度升越20天和50天線,但周五卻落回20天和50天線以下.隨著三條移動平均線進一步匯聚,加上臨近期指結算,相信未來一兩周將會有所突破.從最近成交縮量及指數高低點逐步上移趨勢看,向上突破機會應較大.如能突破29500並企穩其上,可上望30200.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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