Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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觀察能否守穩100天線

Monday, March 29, 2021 Views2525
上周評論指出,恆指的10天,20天和50天移動平均線出現匯聚,加上臨近期指結算,相信短期內走勢會有所突破,只是沒料到是向下突破而非向上突破.恆指上周沽壓明顯增大,終於跌穿3月9日所見低位28326,更進一步下破28000,上周四最低見到27505,創出自今年1月8日以來的新低.周五回升超過400點,收報28336,但相對前周仍下跌了655點,跌幅達2.3%.國指失守11000關口,上周四最低見到10605,周五收報10966,周跌幅達2.8%.
 
A股上周卻止跌回升,上證綜指上周五收報3418,按周上升0.4%;滬深300和深證成指周升幅分別為0.6%和1.2%.先前急跌的"抱團股"逐步企穩,在一定程度上對市場產生支撐作用.經濟數據方面,據國家統計局公布,今年1-2月份全國規模以上工業企業利潤相比去年出現了爆發式增長,增幅達1.79倍,相比2019年1-2月份亦增長72.1%,兩年平均增長31.2%,顯示經濟維持快速復甦勢頭,對股市有利.
 
美股方面,雖然七年期美債拍賣結果不佳,但沒有推動債息進一步上揚,加上有報道指美國政府還打算推出一項高達三至四萬億的產業刺激計劃,令上周五道指和標準普爾500指數再創收盤歷史新高,按周分別上升1.4%和1.6%,但納指按周仍下跌0.6%.經濟數據方面,最新一周新申領失業救濟金人數環比下降近10萬至68.4萬,為自去年3月中旬疫情爆發以來的最低水平.另一方面,密歇根大學消費情緒指數終值為84.9%,明顯高於前值83及市場隕期的83.6,顯示疫苗接種推進和美國政府的財政紓困政策提升了人們對經濟前景的樂觀情緒.
 

說回港股,恆指在上周四一度跌穿100天線,但周五升回其上,暫屬有驚無險,但未來能否企穩100天線之上,仍有待觀察.目前,恆指已跌破先前在28500和29500之間形成的波動區間,未來須升回28500並企穩其上,才能解除再下試或下破100天線的風險.

 

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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