Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
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進入反彈階段

Monday, April 12, 2021 Views1853
長假期前,恆指於3月25日最低見到27505觸底後開始回升.長假期後延續假期前的回升態勢,恆指曾重越29000,上周五最高見到29152,是自3月19日以來的最高位,但未能企穩29000以上,周五收報28699,相對前周下跌了240點,跌幅0.8%.國指在上周三最高見到11281,周五收報10977,按周下跌1.2%,主要由於中國通脹數據超出預期.其中,3月份工業生產者出產價格(PPI)同比上漲4.4%,高於2月份的1.7%漲幅,亦高於市場預期的3.6%漲幅.至於3月份居民消費價格(CPI),則上漲0.4%,PPI的漲幅仍未完全傳導至CPI之上.
 
經濟數據顯示通脹升溫,令市場憂慮央行會收緊貨幣政策,所以A股亦下跌,上證綜指按周跌近1%;滬深300和深證成指周跌幅分別達到2.4%和2.2%.事實上,美國上周公布的經濟數據亦顯示通脹有上升壓力,3月份生產物價指數按月上漲1%,高於2月份的0.5%漲幅;按年則上漲4.2%,創9月年半以來最大升幅,環比和同比升幅都高於市場預期.不過,聯儲局卻繼續放鴿,對市場情緒起到安撫作用.其中,聯儲局主席鮑威爾重申,需要保持對經濟的支持,直到不需要為止.此外,聯儲局副主席克拉里達表示,通脹攀升的趨勢是暫時的,今年晚些時候通脹將回歸2%左右.
 

說回港股,恆指由2月18日高位31183下跌至3月125日低位27505,一共下跌了3678點.若反彈跌幅的0.382,將見到28910,目前已超越此水平.若反彈跌幅的一半,將見到29344,目前仍未達到.若反彈跌幅的0.618,則可見到29778.此外,恆指若要繼續反彈,必須先收復50天線,該線現時處於29240水平.回落的話,則不宜跌穿100天線,該線現時處於28200附近.

本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

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