Louis Wong Commentary

Author

黃瑋傑先生(Louis Wong)
輝立証券董事

見證過去三十多年香港股市每一個牛市和熊市,可謂實戰經驗豐富。現為香港多份財經報章雜誌專欄作家,並為電視台及電台擔任客席主持。個人著作有〈炒得精叻〉、〈投資先知〉及〈股市是平的〉,並獲『中金在線』選為『2010年最受歡迎的港股分析師』。
Phone:
2277 6666

會否真正跌穿250天線?

Monday, May 15, 2023 Views1608

上周評論指出,恆指夾於100天線和250天線之間窄幅波動,而且五線有靠攏跡象,顯示市況仍處於待變格局,暫時最好耐心觀望突破何時出現.上周港股仍然未見到突破,恆指高低波幅只得754點,全周高位20322和全周低位19568分別在上周一和周四見到,周五收報19627,相對前周下跌了422點,跌幅2.1%.國指按周跌近2%,而科指按周則下跌0.6%,是連續第六周下跌.

滬深股市亦見回軟,上證綜指和深證成指按周分別下跌1.9%和1.6%.上周公布的經濟數據表現欠佳,令市場擔心經濟復甦力度可能不及預期,為股市帶來沽壓.其中,4月份全國居民消費價格同比僅上漲0.1%,較3月份的0.7%漲幅回落較多,並且創出兩年多以來最低水平.4月份全國工業生產者出廠價格同比下降3.6%,是自2020年5月以來的最大下跌速度,也是連續第七個月下滑,令市場擔心通縮加劇.另一方面,人民銀行公布的金融統計數據顯示,4月份新增人民幣貸款規模和社會融資規模增量較3月份明顯下滑,反映居民消費信心和購房意欲仍需進一步穩固.

美國上周公布的經濟數據亦遜於預期,加上國會在債務上限問題仍陷入僵局,令股市受壓,道指和標準普爾500指數按周分別下跌0.3%和1.1%.最新一周新申領失業救濟金人數升至26.4萬人,多於預期的24.5萬人,為2021年10月底以來的最高水平.另一方面,5月份密歇根大學消費情緒指數初值降至57.7,遠低於預期的63,顯示就業市場有降溫跡象,或將影響未來消費.通脹數據方面,4月份消費物價指數按年上升4.9%,較3月份的5%漲幅為低,亦低於預期的5%漲幅,但仍屬高企.個別官員仍發表偏鷹言論,如聯儲局理事鮑曼就表示,如通脹繼續高企,可能需要再加息.

說回港股,恆指過去幾個星期多次下破250天線,都有驚無險.上周五恆指再次失守250天線並收於其下,這一次會否真正跌穿250天線,仍有待觀察.若250天線確認失守,下一個重要支持位19500不容有失,而回升阻力位則為20000點.


本人黃瑋傑為証監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益.

This report is produced and is being distributed in Hong Kong by Phillip Securities Group with the Securities and Futures Commission (“SFC”) licence under Phillip Securities (HK) LTD and/ or Phillip Commodities (HK) LTD (“Phillip”). Information contained herein is based on sources that Phillip believed to be accurate. Phillip does not bear responsibility for any loss occasioned by reliance placed upon the contents hereof. The information is for informative purposes only and is not intended to or create/induce the creation of any binding legal relations. The information provided do not constitute investment advice, solicitation, purchase or sell any investment product(s). Investments are subject to investment risks including possible loss of the principal amount invested. You should refer to your Financial Advisor for investment advice based on your investment experience, financial situation, any of your particular needs and risk preference. For details of different product's risks, please visit the Risk Disclosures Statement on http://www.phillip.com.hk. Phillip (or employees) may have positions/ interests in relevant investment products. Phillip (or one of its affiliates) may from time to time provide services for, or solicit services or other business from, any company mentioned in this report. The above information is owned by Phillip and protected by copyright and intellectual property Laws. It may not be reproduced, distributed or published for any purpose without prior written consent from Phillip.
Top of Page
Contact Us
Please contact your account executive or call us now.
Research Department
Tel : (852) 2277 6846
Fax : (852) 2277 6565
Email : businessenquiry@phillip.com.hk

Enquiry & Support
Branches
The Complaint Procedures
About Us
Phillip Securities Group
Join Us
Phillip Network
Phillip Post
Phillip Channel
Latest Promotion
E-Check
Login
Investor Notes
Free Subscribe
Contact Us