Market Brief

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Author

林振寶先生(Vincent Lam)
輝立証券業務及市場經理

自從地鐵開始招股,本人就開始研究股票,了解公司的管理層,股價上落的模式。股票有一條好重要的常規,就是股價會反映所有一切資訊。 金融市場由牛市到熊市,熊市到牛市,恐慌到貪婪,貪婪到恐慌,相信歷史會永遠重演,但是人總會重覆犯錯
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聯儲局真的想不斷加息嗎?

Monday, November 26, 2018 Views1607

        美國聯儲局是中央銀行,其中一個重要的職責,就是制定貨幣政策,直接使用加息或減息工具進行調節經濟,務求令經濟活動可以持續增長。如何衡量加息或減息呢?如果通脹預期會持續向上,最簡單的應到方法就是加息,如果通脹預期向下(通縮),就要採取減息去應對。記得當年格林斯潘宣佈將通脹目標設置為2%,所以要預防通脹超過2%的警界線。

 

        什麼是通脹及通縮呢?最簡單的定義是,物價向上(加價或不斷加價),就是通脹了; 物價向下(減價或不斷減價),就是通縮了。

 

        聯儲局最擔心的情況是什麼呢?就是當產品短期內不斷不斷的加價,就是超級通帳,或是產品在短期內不斷減價或減價,就是超級通縮的情況。

 

        當產品持續不斷加價或減價,會直接影響經濟活動。當經濟活動預期向下時,聯儲局會進行減息去支持實體經濟增長(如果通脹低於2%),避免經濟收縮。當經濟活動預期向上,聯儲局會進行持續加息去支持經濟增長(如果通脹高於2%),避免經濟過熱,出現泡沫。但如果通脹高於2%以上,例如︰3% 或更高,此時我們就必須循序漸進地加息,只有加息這個工具才可以對付好像洪水猛獸的超級通脹了。

      

        現在很多經濟學者或市場人士認為2019年或2020年會開始經濟出現衰退,以及股市下跌也歸咎於聯儲局的加息週期。那麼,為何聯儲局不儘快宣布暫停加息去救市呢?說到底,由於聯儲局已經吸取了過往通脹急速上升而需要突然大幅加息(半厘或以上)令到股市重創的寶貴經驗,當局也不希望重蹈覆轍,所以現在聯儲局只是控股大家對加息的管理期望,儘量令大學覺得加息是理所當然,不是振盪市場的做法。現在油價處於$50 -$60 美金一桶,通脹上升的預期大大減低了,但如果通脹突然急升,市場也不會太過恐慌。至到今天,市場預期十二月還會再加一次利率,之後聯儲局也會觀察一下實體經濟的走勢,再決定下一步行動,大家拭目以待吧。

 

        或者想了解本作者,輝立公司的網站 , www.poems.com.hk  選 金融進修中心 → 講師 - > Vincent Lam

             

        歡迎任何人引述我的文章到別處,只需要知會本人就可以,謝謝!!!

 

作者:本人林振寶為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人沒有持有全部提及之證券的所有相關財務權益。 以上純屬個人意見,不構成任何買賣邀請。


 

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