Market Brief

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吳袓同先生(JordanWood)
輝立証券及期貨市場經理

吳祖同現任本公司高級業務及市場經理, 策略師, 從事証券及恆指期貨交易已有二十多年,尤其在技術分析方面經驗豐富。自2002年開始每週在本欄發表期指走勢技術分析, 廣受客戶和讀者歡迎。
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期指走勢技術分析 29 April 2019

Monday, April 29, 2019 Views845

29 April 2019

 

上週四個交易日,週二期指開29930,週三見30129周內高位,之後轉輾下跌,週五開市見29447周內低位,收29578,一周計下跌362點,周線圖連跌三周,是今年第一次。周線圖各項技術指標顯示沽壓增加,STC的K%上周跌破D%,保曆加通道的寬度經過連續十二周拉寬後上周收窄,%BW報19.85%,比前一周收窄1.1%,說明上升動力開始萎縮,同時也應看到通道中線仍以每週超過二百點的速度向上移動,上周已到達28260以上,中期而言市場的動力還是向上的,並且重要的支持水平不斷在上移,到五月中時,該支持大約上移道28800附近。目前月線圖十八個月保曆加通道的中線在28808,五月時大約在28900,因此29000以下是伺機建立中期好倉可遇不可求的機會。至於現水平,伺機做淡比較有值博率。

 

期指日線圖上,今日開始要用五月期指作為日線圖數據,由於五六月間除息的成分股特別多,五月期指低水超過二百點,因此用恒指現貨來分析比較好。上週四恒指跌破保曆加通道中線之後,中線成為上方最近的阻力,本周初大約在29900附近,由於中線仍在上移中,一旦收市價升穿中線,就有可能測試上線,而上線正在快速下移,所以可運動的空間並不大,同時通道寬度正在急速收窄,未來一兩周內很可能突破通道的其中一邊,形成短期單邊市況,配和周線圖及日線圖的技術指標現況,向下突破的機會大,換句話說,本周內若無力升穿中線,勢必向下跌破下線,就算升穿中線,也將受阻於上線,最終仍將跌破下線。日線圖 Ichimoku 雲層的頂部五月初在28900附近,自一月九日升穿雲層頂部以來,這是第一次接近雲層,第一次下試雲層得到支持是大概率事件,因此估計五月初若跌到28900附近可以先反彈再定去向。

 

波浪分析,30336很可能已是C浪的終點,C浪內的[c]浪自28410升到30336,長度為1926點,大約是[a]浪長度的44%,[c]浪運行時間是13個交易日,正好是[a]浪運行時間的三分之一,[a]浪運行39個交易日。30336向下是D浪在運行,到上週五的29447,很可能已走完了D-[a]浪,本周將進入[b]浪反彈,由於五月期指大低水,以期指跨月資料做連續的結構觀察會有誤差,本周以現貨恒指半小時圖作微浪觀察看[b]浪反彈比較合適。今日刊出的現貨半小時圖,D-[a]浪由30280跌到上週五低位29504,總計下跌776點,運行76個時段,內部可以清晰地看到一組(a)-(b)-(c)三浪下跌結構,若[b]浪反彈[a]浪跌幅的0.5,可以反彈到29892,大約在日線圖保曆加通道中線附近,就是上文提到的上方最近的阻力,若[b]浪反彈[a]浪跌幅的0.618,可以反彈到29984,還不能碰到保曆加通道上線,最極端的情況D-[b]浪變成不規則形態,就是高過30280,暫時還看不到有什麼基本因素可以支持這種走勢,除非國內股市喜劇性大反彈。本周入市策略:等[b]浪走完後入市做淡。

 

以上純屬個人意見,不構成買賣邀請,本人吳祖同為證監會持牌人,本人及本人之客戶會隨時買賣上述分析之相關產品。


 

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