Market Brief

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Author

劉智健先生 (CK Lau)
助理經理

股票研究投資經驗豐富。利用市場數據、技術走勢及投資氣氛用來分析市況,配合合適的投資工具,為客戶評估風險提供買賣策略。喜歡研究資源類及內需類股票 。
Phone:
2943 7499

成實外教育 (1565.HK)

Monday, April 25, 2016 Views5301

集團透過集資所得與第三方業務夥伴合作擴充現有業務, 以及直接設立或收購新學校提昇盈利能力。進入高速增長期。

買入價: 3.96
目標價: 4.8
止蝕價: 3.56

由於中國政府於二零一五年終止「一孩政策」並全面推行「二孩政策」和繼續支持學前教育,故預期二零一九年中國基礎教育行業招生人數將增至230.8百萬人,根據弗若斯特沙利文報告,二零一四年至二零一九年的複合年增長率約為2.6%。過往多年,中國民辦學校招生人數上升。中國民辦學校招生總人數由二零零九年23.0百萬人增至二零一四年35.3百萬人,複合年增長率約為8.9%。預期二零一九年民辦學校招生總人數將增至50.6百萬人,複合年增長率約為7.5%。該增長主要是由於政府制定有利政策支持民辦學校,加上家長對民辦學校教育的需求增加。中國民辦基礎教育行業總收益由二零零九年人民幣519億元增至二零一四年底人民幣1,687億元,複合年增長率約為26.6%。根據弗若斯特沙利文報告,預期二零一九年中國民辦基礎教育行業總收益將達人民幣3,344億元,二零一五年至二零一九年的複合年增長率約為14.7%。中國基礎教育行業招生人數主要取決於學齡兒童人數,而預期未來五年學齡兒童人數及招生率均會上升。中國民辦基礎教育市場競爭激烈且相當分散。二零一四年底,民辦基礎教育學校總數約152,148間,按個別省份或地區學齡人數分佈狀況和民辦教育需求水平分佈於全國。目前中國民辦基礎教育市場未有覆蓋全國和市場份額明顯較高的主要參與者。截至二零一四年十二月三十一日,主要行業參與者以招生人數計算的市場份額不足0.1%,反映市場相當分散。由於中國的民辦基礎教育市場大多以本地為基礎,絕大部分中國民辦基礎教育營運商只有少數的學校,且營運和發展重心一般都在本地市場。營運重心地區不同的營運商,由於目標客戶以及監管與營運環境截然不同,因此互相的競爭有限

根據弗若斯特沙利文報告,與中國民辦基礎教育市場相似,四川省、貴州省、雲南省及重慶市(「中國西南地區」)民辦基礎教育市場亦較分散。二零一四年中國西南地區該分部招生總人數約為4.2百萬人,五大民辦學校營運商的招生總人數約為66,100人,僅佔總市場份額的1.6%。"成實外教育" 二零一四年學前教育至十二年級(「學前教育至十二年級」)的招生總人數約為17,900人,位居地區之首。

CK LAU, April 1, 2016 Email: chikinlau@phillip.com.hk Tel: 29437499
「註:本人劉智健為證監會持牌人士。截至本評論文章發表日止,本人及/或其有聯繫者並無持有全部提及之証券的所有相關財務權益。」

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