Summary

The rejection of the China Eastern Airlines – Singapore Airlines proposal at the shareholders’ meeting is, in general, positive news to small and medium sized shareholders. Relatively the probable offer by China National Aviation Corp (“CNAC”) with higher share price at HK$ 5 is beneficial to CEA: it can help increase assets and reduce financial expenses. Most importantly, the probable proposal by CNAC will bring bigger synergy effect to CEA, and it is forecasted the EPS of CEA will be increased by RMB 0.1-0.15 yearly as a result. Under the circumstances that aviation industry turn to prosperous and plus the synergy effect of integration, we forecast the EPS of China Eastern Airlines in 2008 will reach HK$ 0.4, intermediate target price at HK$8.

Rejection of stake sales to SIA is positive in general

During the extraordinary general meeting on 8th, the proposal of issuing stakes to Singapore Airlines and Temasek was denied. Around 88.87% of A-share holders and 39.44% of H-share holders voted. The result was 94.05% of A-share holders and 74.70% of H-share holders joining the vote against the proposal. We regard this news as positive. The risk CEA faced with is mainly about the delay and uncertainty of receiving investment. Anyway, the possibility is relatively small, the main reasons being: first, industry integration has become the state policy, the possible competition pattern in future lies between two large airlines plus several small airlines; secondly, the management and service level of CEA, the third largest airline company in China, is relatively backward, and it is also in short of operating capital, the prompt integration of CEA has become necessary. Otherwise, under this round of booming aviation industry, the company may further drop behind. In the recent two years, due to bad asset situation and shortage of capital, the number of airplanes to purchase by agreement is only over ten, in very small quantity. This also reflected the embarrassment of the company currently.

In future, no matter whether CEA will accept CNAC’s offer or CNAC and Singapore Airlines will come into this acquisition battle, CEA will obtain benefits from either of them: besides the benefits in finance area and the synergy effect, the operating management and service level of CEA will be improved as well.

CNAC’s probable proposal with bigger synergy effect

CNAC will make new proposal within two weeks. According to existing information available, the share price of CEA for additional issue will rise to HK$ 5 at least, which can better CEA’s asset liability and profitability. Meanwhile, as the scope of air routes integration between Air China and CEA is larger, CNAC’s proposal is more beneficial to CEA.

Chart 1: Proposal by CNAC and Singapore Airlines (HK$)

Data sources: company report, Phillip Securities

Notes: The projected RMB/HK$ exchange rate in 2008 is 1.15, 1% of proceeds as issuing expense. * Forecasted data in 2008 end.

Compared with SIA & Temasek’s proposal, CNAC’s offer will have CEA’s financial expense reduced more. Besides, it will bring synergy effect which lies in: first, in respect of air routes, Singapore Airlines, compared with Air China, has more routes in West Asia and Africa, and its long international air routes are under better operation. However, the ally between Air China and CEA will have CEA to enjoy the synergy effect in air routes such as China mainland, Japan, Korea, HK and Macao routes. The revenue arising from these routes accounts for at least 2/3 of total revenue of CEA; secondly, in respect of cost, the unit cost of Air China is 11% lower than CEA (In 2007 mid, the unit cost of Air China is RMB 3.07 while CEA is RMB 3.46). Assuming the maintenance cost of CEA will reduce by 10% from current level (still 30% higher than Air China), the cost to be saved each year will be RMB 250-300 million. Relatively Singapore Airlines is more specialized in high-end long routes, its cost control in medium and short air routes may not bear competitive advantages; Moreover, after the integration between CEA and Air China, CEA will occupy nearly half of the domestic market, its competition will be obviously enhanced; Finally, according to the data in 2006 & 2007 intermediate term, Air China has better performance than CEA and China Southern Airlines in respect of using oil derivative instruments in replying to oil price jump, the effect of which by Air china was normally more than doubling as compared to the other two companies.

Chart 2: Synergy effect comparison: profit before tax (RMB million)

Data sources: company road-show, Phillip Securities，CIC

Chart 3: Synergy effect comparison: air routes

Data sources: company websites, Phillip Securities

Chart 4: Market share comparison

Data sources: company report, Phillip Securities

Firmly hold H Shares of CEA

China aviation industry has been under positive impacts such as current booming cycle, appreciation of RMB, improvement in load factor and growth of profitability and so on. Under such circumstances, we forecast CEA’s performance will be largely improved, with net profit in 2007 & 2008 reaching RMB 610 million and RMB 1.477 billion, EPS at RMB 0.13 and RMB 0.3 respectively. If in future the ally between CNAC and CEA succeeds, we forecast CEA’s EPS will be increased by RMB 0.1-0.15. By assuming the ally taking place in 2008 mid, the EPS of CEA will be probably rise to RMB0.35, corresponding to nearly HK$0.4.

As of January 10th, the P/E ratio of HK airlines is around 27, European, American and Japan’s around 15. We think the P/E ratio of CEA by conservative estimation can reach 20, 12-month target price will be HK$ 8, nearly 14% increase as compared to current share price.

Earnings Forecast

Data Source: company reports, Phillip Securities

Notes: the forecast has not taken the new issue effect.

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