1H06 Review

Cathay Pacific (293.hk, CX) reported 1H06 turnover of HK$27,086 million, up 13.4% yoy. The operating profit dropped by 0.8% to HK$2,117 million whilst net profit dropped by 0.1% to HK$1,668 million. We think CX has made a prominent first half results even the oil price surged from US$60/barrel to US$78/barrel during the period under review.

FY06 Preview

With reference to table one, we estimate that the FY06 turnover will grow approximately by 12.1% to HK$57,084 million. We assume oil price would dropped to approximately US$60/barrel by the end of this year and CX would continue to control its ex-fuel expense at the similar rate as that in 1H06. We estimate that the net profit would ultimately be increased by 40.6% yoy to HK$4,638 million, with net profit margin surged to 8.1% by the end of the fiscal year. The diluted EPS is estimated to be HK$1.371. We valued it with historical P/E at 11.95x and the 3% premium due to the DragonAir (KA) acquisition, we set the target price is $16.9. Follows are the detailed explanation of out estimation:

Turnover

With the effect derived from the US real GDP slowdown (3.7% in 1Q06; 3.5% in 2Q06), we think it is reasonable to assume 2H06 turnover would increase by 11% to HK$29,998 million, representing a squeezing of growth rate compared with 1H06. (please refer to table two below)

Fuel Expense

The ratio of “Fuel/(Turnover*Average Oil Price)” in table two represents the sensitivity of CX’s fuel cost per dollar earned to the market oil price. Given that the oil price is moving in a upward trend while this ratio decrease, it can be explained firstly that CX has increased its hedging measures to the rising oil price, or secondly CX in some way utilizing its oil resources more cost effectively, or lastly CX increases the yield more significantly compared to the surging oil price. According to the data provided, this ratio of CX has been decreasing since 2005 and we estimate that this ratio would drop to 0.0043 in 2H06 and we believe that this is not an aggressive estimation as the recent lowest point was down to 0.00353 in 2H04.

In our estimation, we have made one critical assumption behind, i.e., oil price we forecast would at least drop to US$60/barrel by the end of this year, and therefore the average oil price will be about US$67.5 per barrel in 2H06. (This is our conservative forecast of the oil price. If taking a more optimistic point of view, oil price would further drop to US$55/barrel.)

Follows are our elaboration of such estimation: In the graph one, the oil demand (red line) has been steadily increasing before 2005 and then run flattened obviously. Although the oil supply (white line) has been more than the demand since 2004, the oil price, as shown in the graph two, surged from US$40/barrel as in 2Q04 to US$78 as in 3Q06. Certainly, this irregularities as we understand was due to the astronomical and political factors like the war between Israel Vs Labenon, US Vs Iraq, hurricane Katrina in US Gulf Coast, Iran’s nuclear threat, and so on. Nowadays, most of the said threat is about to cool down, and there only left two hurricanes after eleven hurricanes have silently passed away this year. In light of that, we believe the oil price would reasonably return to the value at the moment that the oil demand began to go flattened as in 1Q05, i.e., US$55/barrel. We assume it would take time for the adjustment, and thus we anticipate the oil price can partially adjust to US60/barrel as at the end of this year.

Ex-Fuel Expense

In table three, the ratio of “Operating Expenses – Excl. Fuel / Turnover” has been dropping with decreasing magnitude since 2003. This shows management has put continuous effort on cost control on the ex-fuel resources aspect. Along with the trend, we assume the ratio would drop to 0.59 in FY06.

Further Upside

The KA acquisition came to be effective in the early Sep06. We originally thought that it would exert limited impact on CX’s annual results. However, the pace of reviewing the joint CX-KA business seems faster than our expectation. On 29th Sep 2006, CX announced to re-organize the supportive businesses, with immediate effect of 191 layoffs. On this regards, we would conservatively incorporate this positive factor into current price with 3% premium.

Valuation

Our 2006 EPS estimate is HK$1.371. Valued it by one-year historical P/E at 11.95x (as referred to table four), the target price from organic growth is $16.38 in the normal scenario. Incorporating the above beneficial factors, the final target price with 3% premium as of the end of December 2006 would be $16.87. (The critical assumption recapped: the premium on KA acquisition is 3% and oil price close at about US$60/barrel as at the end of 2006)

The table five as follows is the scenario analysis of different closing price for crude oil as at the end of this year to our final target price. As seen, if crude oil closes at US$55/barrel optimistically by the end of 2006, the average oil price in 2H06 would be around US$65/barrel and our final target price with 3% premium due to KA acquisition would be $17.82.

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